Last updated 6/8/2020

I have graphed the number of new cases in seven-day increments versus the number of total cases. I use log-log on the axes because exponential curves show up as straight lines.  Each of the 4 countries plotted form a straight line on the graph suggesting exponential growth.  But in the cases of S. Korea and China the recent data fall dramatically off the exponential line suggesting their exponential growth has ceased.  All this assumes the data coming from China (and Iran) is correct. On the other hand, the US, and Italy are facing future unknown exponential growth.  Five other countries are graphed below with similar exponential growth = Germany, Iran, Spain, France, and UK.

Time can be thought of as moving along the colored lines/curves as the total number of cases increase. We should reach the end of the exponential growth of Coronavirus in the US (and Italy) when the data start to fall off the exponential lines downward (lower number of new cases). I will try to update the data each week. I have given the raw numbers below the graph.

I will update the graphs again in 7 days on June 15.

Raw data is from the following source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data.

If you are unfamiliar with exponential growth, I suggest the following video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc&fbclid=IwAR1wY95Q6IWEKcmN0EYUh-3pSfUypr5tuJPp_bR5YaIHVcKUZYpSFpT7vyg&app=desktop

April 6
April 13
April 20
April 27
May 4 – added black line to show exponential growth
May 11
May 18
May 25
June 1
June 8

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Cases of Coronavirus in the following countries
China US Italy S. Korea
New Total New Total New Total New Total
wk 1 59 59
wk 2 59
wk 3 176 235 1 1
wk 4 2540 2775 5 5 0 0 3 4
wk 5 14436 17211 6 11 3 3 11 15
wk 6 22995 40206 1 12 0 3 12 27
wk 7 30412 70618 3 15 0 3 3 30
wk 8 6616 77234 20 35 129 132 732 762
wk 9 2900 80134 54 89 1557 1689 3450 4212
wk10 725 80859 465 554 5686 7375 3170 7382
wk11 161 81020 3220 3774 16605 23980 854 8236
wk12 629 81649 31432 35206 35158 59138 725 8961
wk13 814 82463 107819 143025 38551 97689 700 9661
wk14 485 82642 194610 337635 31259 128948 623 10284
wk15 567 83209 219936 557571 27415 156363 253 10537
wk16 608 83817 202116 759687 22609 178972 137 10674
wk17 382 84199 206223 965910 18703 197675 64 10738
wk18 52 83964 192131 1158041 13042 210717 63 10801
wk19 46 84010 171758 1329799 8353 219070 108 10909
wk20 44 84054 156958 1486757 6365 225435 156 11065
wk21 41 84095 156481 1643238 4423 229858 141 11206
wk22 52 84147 146953 1790191 3161 233019 297 11503
wk23 44 84191 152172 1942363 1979 234998 311 11814

Here are data for additional countries.

April 6
April 13
April 20
April 27
May 4
May 11

May 18
May 25
June 1
June 8
Cases of Coronavirus in the following countries
Germany Iran Spain France UK
New Total New Total New Total New Total New Total
wk 1
wk 2
wk 3
wk 4 3 3
wk 5 9 9 1 1 3 6 2 2
wk 6 4 13 1 2 5 11 2 4
wk 7 2 15 0 2 1 12 5 9
wk 8 0 15 43 43 0 2 0 12 4 13
wk 9 114 129 935 978 81 83 118 130 23 36
wk10 773 902 5588 6566 506 589 996 1126 237 273
wk11 3936 4838 7372 13938 7164 7753 4297 5423 1118 1391
wk12 19936 24774 7700 21638 20819 28572 10595 16018 4292 5683
wk13 32524 57298 16671 38309 50225 78797 24156 40174 13839 19522
wk14 38093 95391 19917 58226 51962 130759 30304 70478 28284 47806
wk15 27625 123016 13460 71686 35260 166019 24925 95403 36473 84279
wk16 18656 141672 10525 82211 29925 195944 17203 112606 35788 120067
wk17 13521 155193 8270 90481 18302 210895 11969 124575 32773 152840
wk18 7982 163175 6943 97424 8001 217466 6712 131287 33759 186599
wk19 6400 169575 10179 107603 6379 224390 7776 139063 32584 219183
wk20 5122 174697 12595 120198 3836 231606 3348 142411 24512 243695
wk21 3873 178570 15503 135701 3794 235400 2510 144921 15864 259559
wk22 3245 181815 15765 151466 4029 239429 6832 151753 15203 274762
wk23 2378 184193 20323 171789 2152 241550 2224 153977 11432 286194

Data last updated 9:00 AM April 10.

The raw data is from the following website: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Graphs from the tables below. Death percents are calculated by dividing the number of reported deaths by the total number of confirmed cases of the virus. Cases are equivalent to the number of reported individuals with the virus – that is, total confirmed cases.

Graphs of states with high coronavirus cases.

Table 1. Percent deaths for each day from the top countries affected by the virus.

Percent deaths
Country 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar
China 4.00 4.00 4.01 4.01 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02
Italy 8.34 8.29 8.57 9.01 9.26 9.51 9.86 10.09 10.19 10.56 10.84
Iran 6.98 6.98 6.23 7.55 7.86 7.79 7.69 7.60 7.35 7.11 6.89
Spain 4.26 4.61 3.86 6.02 6.59 6.80 7.21 7.28 7.58 7.88 8.28
Germany 0.24 0.27 0.35 0.40 0.42 0.43 0.51 0.56 0.59 0.74 0.78
US 1.59 1.44 1.32 1.27 1.34 1.28 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.63 1.76
France 2.68 3.41 3.56 3.88 4.04 4.28 4.87 5.21 5.74 5.98 6.08
South Korea 1.06 1.09 1.16 1.17 1.24 1.33 1.38 1.42 1.49 1.52 1.59
Switzerland 1.08 1.03 1.01 1.20 1.30 1.34 1.33 1.48 1.65 1.82 1.96
UK 3.93 5.34 4.43 4.62 4.91 4.99 5.18 4.84 4.91 5.16 5.89
Netherlands 2.87 3.12 3.56 3.76 4.27 4.49 4.96 5.54 5.82 6.33 6.52
Austria 0.27 0.30 0.26 0.26 0.42 0.52 0.55 0.70 0.80 0.88 0.88
Belgium 1.17 1.17 2.38 2.38 2.35 2.86 3.61 3.53 3.97 3.86 3.98
Norway 0.37 0.39 0.35 0.32 0.33 0.42 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.53 0.55
Sweden 0.77 0.76 0.97 1.13 1.29 1.60 1.77 2.51 2.69 3.42 3.05
Denmark 0.5 0.49 0.67 0.92 0.83 1.88 1.73 1.73 1.90 2.36 2.81
Japan 3.14 3.50 3.28 3.32 3.72 3.68 3.60 3.44 3.39 3.27 3.07
Total (world) 4.09 4.07 4.16 4.30 4.37 4.37 4.51 4.52 4.52 4.67 4.67

Table 1 continued

Percent deaths
30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr
4.02 4.02 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.04 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03
11.03 11.75 11.75 11.90 12.07 12.25 12.33 12.32 12.47 12.63 12.67
6.64 6.50 6.38 6.26 6.19 6.19 6.19 6.42 6.19 5.95 6.18
8.62 8.67 8.86 9.07 8.50 9.42 9.50 9.67 9.82 9.92 10.00
0.87 0.97 1.09 1.19 1.31 1.40 1.50 1.58 1.75 1.87 2.07
1.76 1.93 2.15 2.37 2.47 2.57 2.72 2.86 2.98 3.23 3.42
6.41 6.71 6.68 7.00 9.01 7.85 8.34 8.63 9.02 9.40 13.10
1.64 1.66 1.67 1.69 1.73 1.74 1.79 1.81 1.86 1.93 1.96
2.07 2.31 2.61 2.79 2.99 3.07 3.16 3.45 3.59 3.76 3.88
6.22 6.29 7.03 7.89 8.56 9.33 10.17 10.20 10.30 11.03 11.57
7.06 7.32 8.21 8.58 9.07 9.43 9.90 9.87 9.90 10.70 10.90
0.88 0.88 1.40 1.45 1.49 1.58 1.72 1.82 1.96 2.14 2.26
4.31 5.52 5.93 6.59 6.82 6.96 7.35 7.84 9.17 9.57 10.10
0.67 0.76 2.35 0.92 1.03 1.10 1.17 1.27 1.41 1.46 1.67
2.97 3.62 4.06 4.83 5.53 5.84 5.79 5.87 6.62 7.68 8.16
2.64 3.01 2.96 3.47 3.60 3.52 3.92 3.70 3.92 3.64 3.89
2.89 2.87 2.62 2.39 2.41 2.35 2.45 2.33 2.36 2.18 2.01
4.74 4.84 4.95 5.07 5.25 5.29 5.40 5.47 5.59 5.75 5.98

Table 1 continued

Percent deaths
10-Apr
4.03
12.73
6.21
10.09
2.20
3.58
10.29
1.99
3.96
12.13
10.98
2.38
11.32
1.74
8.68
4.07
1.79
6.00

Table 2. Total confirmed cases for each day from the top countries affected by the virus.

Total Confirmed
Country 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar
China 81154 81250 81303 81394 81496 81588 81661 81782 81897 81996 82120
Italy 35713 41035 47021 53578 59138 63927 69176 74386 80589 86498 92472
Iran 18407 18407 20610 20610 23049 24811 27017 29406 32332 35408 38309
Spain 15014 18077 21571 28572 33089 39673 47610 56188 64059 72248 78797
Germany 13093 16290 20142 23129 26220 30150 34009 39502 47278 53340 58247
US 9415 14250 19624 26747 35225 46450 53225 69197 85996 104837 124686
France 9058 10891 12632 14485 16720 20149 22637 25604 29581 33414 38105
South Korea 8565 8652 8799 8897 8961 9037 9137 9241 9332 9478 9583
Switzerland 3067 4164 5544 6652 8234 9117 10171 11125 11951 13259 14352
UK 2644 2717 4014 5067 5748 6733 8167 9642 11816 14754 17320
Netherlands 2056 2468 3003 3643 4217 4767 5585 6440 7469 8647 9819
Austria 1843 2013 2664 3021 3806 4791 5499 6001 7269 7712 7712
Belgium 1795 1795 2815 2815 3743 4269 4937 6235 7284 9134 10836
Norway 1631 1781 1994 2216 2415 2647 2868 3191 3191 3807 4213
Sweden 1301 1439 1657 1770 1934 2059 2318 2554 2858 3069 3447
Denmark 1206 1225 1337 1420 1572 1703 1852 1852 2163 2200 2564
Japan 924 943 1007 1055 1101 1140 1193 1307 1387 1499 1693
Total (world) 222642 246275 278136 311988 350536 392331 435006 487648 549604 614884 679977

Table 2 continued.

Total Confirmed
30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr
82198 82276 82359 82431 82509 82543 82602 82665 82718 82809 82883
97689 101739 105792 110574 115242 119827 124632 128948 132547 135586 139422
41495 44605 47593 50468 53189 55743 58226 58226 62589 67286 64586
85195 94417 102136 110238 117710 124736 130759 135032 140510 146690 152446
62435 67051 72383 77981 85063 91159 96108 100132 103375 107663 113296
143055 164610 189633 216722 245573 278458 312245 337933 368449 399929 432438
40747 45171 52836 57780 59929 83029 90853 93780 98984 110070 83080
9661 9786 9887 9976 10062 10156 10237 10284 10331 10384 10423
15069 16176 16605 18117 19145 19702 21100 21282 21907 22488 23514
19788 22465 25504 29872 34192 38697 42480 48451 52301 55957 61487
10930 11817 12677 13696 14793 15821 16729 17965 18926 19709 20682
7712 7712 10418 10877 11251 11781 11861 12083 12427 12738 13074
11899 12775 13964 15348 16770 18431 19691 20814 22194 23403 24983
4313 4495 1699 4898 5255 5370 5645 5760 5866 6086 6042
3700 4028 4435 4947 5568 6131 6443 6830 7206 7693 8419
2724 2994 3043 3542 3861 3948 4561 4841 5173 5581 5597
1866 1953 2178 2384 2617 2935 3139 3654 3906 4257 4667
735560 800049 874081 951901 1030628 1131713 1216422 1286409 1360039 1446557 1496055

Table 2 continued.

Total Confirmed
10-Apr
82940
143626
66220
157022
118235
466299
118785
10450
24172
65872
21910
13398
26667
6219
9141
5830
5530
1612646

Table 3. Raw data for each day.

10-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82940 3340 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00576 0.00023
Italy 143626 18279 12.73 60,461,826 0.23755 0.03023
Iran 66220 4110 6.21 83,992,949 0.07884 0.00489
Spain 157022 15843 10.09 46,754,778 0.33584 0.03389
Germany 118235 2607 2.20 83,783,942 0.14112 0.00311
US 466299 16686 3.58 331,002,651 0.14087 0.00504
France 118785 12228 10.29 65,273,511 0.18198 0.01873
South Korea 10450 208 1.99 51,269,185 0.02038 0.00041
Switzerland 24172 958 3.96 8,654,622 0.27930 0.01107
UK 65872 7993 12.13 67,886,011 0.09703 0.01177
Netherlands 21910 2405 10.98 17,134,872 0.12787 0.01404
Austria 13398 319 2.38 9,006,398 0.14876 0.00354
Belgium 26667 3019 11.32 11,589,623 0.23009 0.02605
Norway 6219 108 1.74 5,421,241 0.11472 0.00199
Sweden 9141 793 8.68 10,099,265 0.09051 0.00785
Denmark 5830 237 4.07 5,792,202 0.10065 0.00409
Japan 5530 99 1.79 126,476,461 0.00437 0.00008
Total (world) 1612646 96787 6.00 7,500,000,000 0.02150 0.00129
9-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82883 3339 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00576 0.00023
Italy 139422 17669 12.67 60,461,826 0.23060 0.02922
Iran 64586 3993 6.18 83,992,949 0.07689 0.00475
Spain 152446 15238 10.00 46,754,778 0.32605 0.03259
Germany 113296 2349 2.07 83,783,942 0.13522 0.00280
US 432438 14808 3.42 331,002,651 0.13064 0.00447
France 83080 10887 13.10 65,273,511 0.12728 0.01668
South Korea 10423 204 1.96 51,269,185 0.02033 0.00040
Switzerland 23514 913 3.88 8,654,622 0.27169 0.01055
UK 61487 7111 11.57 67,886,011 0.09057 0.01047
Netherlands 20682 2255 10.90 17,134,872 0.12070 0.01316
Austria 13074 295 2.26 9,006,398 0.14516 0.00328
Belgium 24983 2523 10.10 11,589,623 0.21556 0.02177
Norway 6042 101 1.67 5,421,241 0.11145 0.00186
Sweden 8419 687 8.16 10,099,265 0.08336 0.00680
Denmark 5597 218 3.89 5,792,202 0.09663 0.00376
Japan 4667 94 2.01 126,476,461 0.00369 0.00007
Total (world) 1496055 89435 5.98 7,500,000,000 0.01995 0.00119
8-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82809 3337 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00575 0.00023
Italy 135586 17127 12.63 60,461,826 0.22425 0.02833
Iran 67286 4003 5.95 83,992,949 0.08011 0.00477
Spain 146690 14555 9.92 46,754,778 0.31374 0.03113
Germany 107663 2016 1.87 83,783,942 0.12850 0.00241
US 399929 12911 3.23 331,002,651 0.12082 0.00390
France 110070 10343 9.40 65,273,511 0.16863 0.01585
South Korea 10384 200 1.93 51,269,185 0.02025 0.00039
Switzerland 22488 846 3.76 8,654,622 0.25984 0.00978
UK 55957 6171 11.03 67,886,011 0.08243 0.00909
Netherlands 19709 2108 10.70 17,134,872 0.11502 0.01230
Austria 12738 273 2.14 9,006,398 0.14143 0.00303
Belgium 23403 2240 9.57 11,589,623 0.20193 0.01933
Norway 6086 89 1.46 5,421,241 0.11226 0.00164
Sweden 7693 591 7.68 10,099,265 0.07617 0.00585
Denmark 5581 203 3.64 5,792,202 0.09635 0.00350
Japan 4257 93 2.18 126,476,461 0.00337 0.00007
Total (world) 1446557 83149 5.75 7,500,000,000 0.01929 0.00111
7-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82718 3335 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00575 0.00023
Italy 132547 16523 12.47 60,461,826 0.21922 0.02733
Iran 62589 3872 6.19 83,992,949 0.07452 0.00461
Spain 140510 13798 9.82 46,754,778 0.30053 0.02951
Germany 103375 1810 1.75 83,783,942 0.12338 0.00216
US 368449 10993 2.98 331,002,651 0.11131 0.00332
France 98984 8926 9.02 65,273,511 0.15164 0.01367
South Korea 10331 192 1.86 51,269,185 0.02015 0.00037
Switzerland 21907 787 3.59 8,654,622 0.25312 0.00909
UK 52301 5385 10.30 67,886,011 0.07704 0.00793
Netherlands 18926 1874 9.90 17,134,872 0.11045 0.01094
Austria 12427 243 1.96 9,006,398 0.13798 0.00270
Belgium 22194 2035 9.17 11,589,623 0.19150 0.01756
Norway 5866 83 1.41 5,421,241 0.10820 0.00153
Sweden 7206 477 6.62 10,099,265 0.07135 0.00472
Denmark 5173 203 3.92 5,792,202 0.08931 0.00350
Japan 3906 92 2.36 126,476,461 0.00309 0.00007
Total (world) 1360039 75973 5.59 7,500,000,000 0.01813 0.00101
6-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82665 3335 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00574 0.00023
Italy 128948 15887 12.32 60,461,826 0.21327 0.02628
Iran 58226 3739 6.42 83,992,949 0.06932 0.00445
Spain 135032 13055 9.67 46,754,778 0.28881 0.02792
Germany 100132 1584 1.58 83,783,942 0.11951 0.00189
US 337933 9653 2.86 331,002,651 0.10209 0.00292
France 93780 8093 8.63 65,273,511 0.14367 0.01240
South Korea 10284 186 1.81 51,269,185 0.02006 0.00036
Switzerland 21282 734 3.45 8,654,622 0.24590 0.00848
UK 48451 4943 10.20 67,886,011 0.07137 0.00728
Netherlands 17965 1773 9.87 17,134,872 0.10484 0.01035
Austria 12083 220 1.82 9,006,398 0.13416 0.00244
Belgium 20814 1632 7.84 11,589,623 0.17959 0.01408
Norway 5760 73 1.27 5,421,241 0.10625 0.00135
Sweden 6830 401 5.87 10,099,265 0.06763 0.00397
Denmark 4841 179 3.70 5,792,202 0.08358 0.00309
Japan 3654 85 2.33 126,476,461 0.00289 0.00007
Total (world) 1286409 70356 5.47 7,500,000,000 0.01715 0.00094
5-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82602 3333 4.04 1,439,323,776 0.00574 0.00023
Italy 124632 15362 12.33 60,461,826 0.20613 0.02541
Iran 58226 3603 6.19 83,992,949 0.06932 0.00429
Spain 130759 12418 9.50 46,754,778 0.27967 0.02656
Germany 96108 1446 1.50 83,783,942 0.11471 0.00173
US 312245 8503 2.72 331,002,651 0.09433 0.00257
France 90853 7574 8.34 65,273,511 0.13919 0.01160
South Korea 10237 183 1.79 51,269,185 0.01997 0.00036
Switzerland 21100 666 3.16 8,654,622 0.24380 0.00770
UK 42480 4320 10.17 67,886,011 0.06258 0.00636
Netherlands 16729 1656 9.90 17,134,872 0.09763 0.00966
Austria 11861 204 1.72 9,006,398 0.13170 0.00227
Belgium 19691 1447 7.35 11,589,623 0.16990 0.01249
Norway 5645 66 1.17 5,421,241 0.10413 0.00122
Sweden 6443 373 5.79 10,099,265 0.06380 0.00369
Denmark 4561 179 3.92 5,792,202 0.07874 0.00309
Japan 3139 77 2.45 126,476,461 0.00248 0.00006
Total (world) 1216422 65711 5.40 7,500,000,000 0.01622 0.00088
4-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82543 3330 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00573 0.00023
Italy 119827 14681 12.25 60,461,826 0.19819 0.02428
Iran 55743 3452 6.19 83,992,949 0.06637 0.00411
Spain 124736 11744 9.42 46,754,778 0.26679 0.02512
Germany 91159 1275 1.40 83,783,942 0.10880 0.00152
US 278458 7159 2.57 331,002,651 0.08413 0.00216
France 83029 6520 7.85 65,273,511 0.12720 0.00999
South Korea 10156 177 1.74 51,269,185 0.01981 0.00035
Switzerland 19702 604 3.07 8,654,622 0.22765 0.00698
UK 38697 3611 9.33 67,886,011 0.05700 0.00532
Netherlands 15821 1492 9.43 17,134,872 0.09233 0.00871
Austria 11781 186 1.58 9,006,398 0.13081 0.00207
Belgium 18431 1283 6.96 11,589,623 0.15903 0.01107
Norway 5370 59 1.10 5,421,241 0.09905 0.00109
Sweden 6131 358 5.84 10,099,265 0.06071 0.00354
Denmark 3948 139 3.52 5,792,202 0.06816 0.00240
Japan 2935 69 2.35 126,476,461 0.00232 0.00005
Total (world) 1131713 59884 5.29 7,500,000,000 0.01509 0.00080
3-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82509 3326 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00573 0.00023
Italy 115242 13915 12.07 60,461,826 0.19060 0.02301
Iran 53189 3294 6.19 83,992,949 0.06333 0.00392
Spain 117710 10003 8.50 46,754,778 0.25176 0.02139
Germany 85063 1111 1.31 83,783,942 0.10153 0.00133
US 245573 6058 2.47 331,002,651 0.07419 0.00183
France 59929 5398 9.01 65,273,511 0.09181 0.00827
South Korea 10062 174 1.73 51,269,185 0.01963 0.00034
Switzerland 19145 573 2.99 8,654,622 0.22121 0.00662
UK 34192 2926 8.56 67,886,011 0.05037 0.00431
Netherlands 14793 1342 9.07 17,134,872 0.08633 0.00783
Austria 11251 168 1.49 9,006,398 0.12492 0.00187
Belgium 16770 1143 6.82 11,589,623 0.14470 0.00986
Norway 5255 54 1.03 5,421,241 0.09693 0.00100
Sweden 5568 308 5.53 10,099,265 0.05513 0.00305
Denmark 3861 139 3.60 5,792,202 0.06666 0.00240
Japan 2617 63 2.41 126,476,461 0.00207 0.00005
Total (world) 1030628 54137 5.25 7,500,000,000 0.01374 0.00072
2-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82431 3322 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00573 0.00023
Italy 110574 13155 11.90 60,461,826 0.18288 0.02176
Iran 50468 3160 6.26 83,992,949 0.06009 0.00376
Spain 110238 10003 9.07 46,754,778 0.23578 0.02139
Germany 77981 931 1.19 83,783,942 0.09307 0.00111
US 216722 5137 2.37 331,002,651 0.06547 0.00155
France 57780 4043 7.00 65,273,511 0.08852 0.00619
South Korea 9976 169 1.69 51,269,185 0.01946 0.00033
Switzerland 18117 505 2.79 8,654,622 0.20933 0.00584
UK 29872 2357 7.89 67,886,011 0.04400 0.00347
Netherlands 13696 1175 8.58 17,134,872 0.07993 0.00686
Austria 10877 158 1.45 9,006,398 0.12077 0.00175
Belgium 15348 1011 6.59 11,589,623 0.13243 0.00872
Norway 4898 45 0.92 5,421,241 0.09035 0.00083
Sweden 4947 239 4.83 10,099,265 0.04898 0.00237
Denmark 3542 123 3.47 5,792,202 0.06115 0.00212
Japan 2384 57 2.39 126,476,461 0.00188 0.00005
Total (world) 951901 48284 5.07 7,500,000,000 0.01269 0.00064
1-Apr
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82359 3316 4.03 1,439,323,776 0.00572 0.00023
Italy 105792 12428 11.75 60,461,826 0.17497 0.02056
Iran 47593 3036 6.38 83,992,949 0.05666 0.00361
Spain 102136 9053 8.86 46,754,778 0.21845 0.01936
Germany 72383 788 1.09 83,783,942 0.08639 0.00094
US 189633 4081 2.15 331,002,651 0.05729 0.00123
France 52836 3532 6.68 65,273,511 0.08095 0.00541
South Korea 9887 165 1.67 51,269,185 0.01928 0.00032
Switzerland 16605 433 2.61 8,654,622 0.19186 0.00500
UK 25504 1793 7.03 67,886,011 0.03757 0.00264
Netherlands 12677 1041 8.21 17,134,872 0.07398 0.00608
Austria 10418 146 1.40 9,006,398 0.11567 0.00162
Belgium 13964 828 5.93 11,589,623 0.12049 0.00714
Norway 1699 40 2.35 5,421,241 0.03134 0.00074
Sweden 4435 180 4.06 10,099,265 0.04391 0.00178
Denmark 3043 90 2.96 5,792,202 0.05254 0.00155
Japan 2178 57 2.62 126,476,461 0.00172 0.00005
Total (world) 874081 43291 4.95 7,500,000,000 0.01165 0.00058
31-Mar
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82276 3309 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00572 0.00023
Italy 101739 11951 11.75 60,461,826 0.16827 0.01977
Iran 44605 2898 6.50 83,992,949 0.05311 0.00345
Spain 94417 8189 8.67 46,754,778 0.20194 0.01751
Germany 67051 650 0.97 83,783,942 0.08003 0.00078
US 164610 3170 1.93 331,002,651 0.04973 0.00096
France 45171 3030 6.71 65,273,511 0.06920 0.00464
South Korea 9786 162 1.66 51,269,185 0.01909 0.00032
Switzerland 16176 373 2.31 8,654,622 0.18691 0.00431
UK 22465 1412 6.29 67,886,011 0.03309 0.00208
Netherlands 11817 865 7.32 17,134,872 0.06896 0.00505
Austria 7712 68 0.88 9,006,398 0.08563 0.00076
Belgium 12775 705 5.52 11,589,623 0.11023 0.00608
Norway 4495 34 0.76 5,421,241 0.08291 0.00063
Sweden 4028 146 3.62 10,099,265 0.03988 0.00145
Denmark 2994 90 3.01 5,792,202 0.05169 0.00155
Japan 1953 56 2.87 126,476,461 0.00154 0.00004
Total (world) 800049 38743 4.84 7,500,000,000 0.01067 0.00052
30-Mar
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82198 3308 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00571 0.00023
Italy 97689 10779 11.03 60,461,826 0.16157 0.01783
Iran 41495 2757 6.64 83,992,949 0.04940 0.00328
Spain 85195 7340 8.62 46,754,778 0.18222 0.01570
Germany 62435 541 0.87 83,783,942 0.07452 0.00065
US 143055 2513 1.76 331,002,651 0.04322 0.00076
France 40747 2611 6.41 65,273,511 0.06243 0.00400
South Korea 9661 158 1.64 51,269,185 0.01884 0.00031
Switzerland 15069 312 2.07 8,654,622 0.17412 0.00361
UK 19788 1231 6.22 67,886,011 0.02915 0.00181
Netherlands 10930 772 7.06 17,134,872 0.06379 0.00451
Austria 7712 68 0.88 9,006,398 0.08563 0.00076
Belgium 11899 513 4.31 11,589,623 0.10267 0.00443
Norway 4313 29 0.67 5,421,241 0.07956 0.00053
Sweden 3700 110 2.97 10,099,265 0.03664 0.00109
Denmark 2724 72 2.64 5,792,202 0.04703 0.00124
Japan 1866 54 2.89 126,476,461 0.00148 0.00004
Total (world) 735560 34830 4.74 7,500,000,000 0.00981 0.00046
29-Mar
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 82120 3304 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00571 0.00023
Italy 92472 10023 10.84 60,461,826 0.15294 0.01658
Iran 38309 2640 6.89 83,992,949 0.04561 0.00314
Spain 78797 6528 8.28 46,754,778 0.16853 0.01396
Germany 58247 455 0.78 83,783,942 0.06952 0.00054
US 124686 2191 1.76 331,002,651 0.03767 0.00066
France 38105 2317 6.08 65,273,511 0.05838 0.00355
South Korea 9583 152 1.59 51,269,185 0.01869 0.00030
Switzerland 14352 282 1.96 8,654,622 0.16583 0.00326
UK 17320 1021 5.89 67,886,011 0.02551 0.00150
Netherlands 9819 640 6.52 17,134,872 0.05730 0.00374
Austria 7712 68 0.88 9,006,398 0.08563 0.00076
Belgium 10836 431 3.98 11,589,623 0.09350 0.00372
Norway 4213 23 0.55 5,421,241 0.07771 0.00042
Sweden 3447 105 3.05 10,099,265 0.03413 0.00104
Denmark 2564 72 2.81 5,792,202 0.04427 0.00124
Japan 1693 52 3.07 126,476,461 0.00134 0.00004
Total (world) 679977 31734 4.67 7,500,000,000 0.00907 0.00042
28-Mar
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81996 3299 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00570 0.00023
Italy 86498 9134 10.56 60,461,826 0.14306 0.01511
Iran 35408 2517 7.11 83,992,949 0.04216 0.00300
Spain 72248 5690 7.88 46,754,778 0.15453 0.01217
Germany 53340 395 0.74 83,783,942 0.06366 0.00047
US 104837 1711 1.63 331,002,651 0.03167 0.00052
France 33414 1997 5.98 65,273,511 0.05119 0.00306
South Korea 9478 144 1.52 51,269,185 0.01849 0.00028
Switzerland 13259 241 1.82 8,654,622 0.15320 0.00278
UK 14754 761 5.16 67,886,011 0.02173 0.00112
Netherlands 8647 547 6.33 17,134,872 0.05046 0.00319
Austria 7712 68 0.88 9,006,398 0.08563 0.00076
Belgium 9134 353 3.86 11,589,623 0.07881 0.00305
Norway 3807 20 0.53 5,421,241 0.07022 0.00037
Sweden 3069 105 3.42 10,099,265 0.03039 0.00104
Denmark 2200 52 2.36 5,792,202 0.03798 0.00090
Japan 1499 49 3.27 126,476,461 0.00119 0.00004
Total (world) 614884 28687 4.67 7,500,000,000 0.00820 0.00038
27-Mar
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81897 3296 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00569 0.00023
Italy 80589 8215 10.19 60,461,826 0.13329 0.01359
Iran 32332 2378 7.35 83,992,949 0.03849 0.00283
Spain 64059 4858 7.58 46,754,778 0.13701 0.01039
Germany 47278 281 0.59 83,783,942 0.05643 0.00034
US 85996 1300 1.51 331,002,651 0.02598 0.00039
France 29581 1698 5.74 65,273,511 0.04532 0.00260
South Korea 9332 139 1.49 51,269,185 0.01820 0.00027
Switzerland 11951 197 1.65 8,654,622 0.13809 0.00228
UK 11816 580 4.91 67,886,011 0.01741 0.00085
Netherlands 7469 435 5.82 17,134,872 0.04359 0.00254
Austria 7269 58 0.80 9,006,398 0.08071 0.00064
Belgium 7284 289 3.97 11,589,623 0.06285 0.00249
Norway 3191 14 0.44 5,421,241 0.05886 0.00026
Sweden 2858 77 2.69 10,099,265 0.02830 0.00076
Denmark 2163 41 1.90 5,792,202 0.03734 0.00071
Japan 1387 47 3.39 126,476,461 0.00110 0.00004
Total (world) 549604 24863 4.52 7,500,000,000 0.00733 0.00033
26-Mar
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81782 3291 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00568 0.00023
Italy 74386 7503 10.09 60,461,826 0.12303 0.01241
Iran 29406 2234 7.60 83,992,949 0.03501 0.00266
Spain 56188 4089 7.28 46,754,778 0.12018 0.00875
Germany 39502 222 0.56 83,783,942 0.04715 0.00026
US 69197 1046 1.51 331,002,651 0.02091 0.00032
France 25604 1333 5.21 65,273,511 0.03923 0.00204
South Korea 9241 131 1.42 51,269,185 0.01802 0.00026
Switzerland 11125 165 1.48 8,654,622 0.12854 0.00191
UK 9642 467 4.84 67,886,011 0.01420 0.00069
Netherlands 6440 357 5.54 17,134,872 0.03758 0.00208
Austria 6001 42 0.70 9,006,398 0.06663 0.00047
Belgium 6235 220 3.53 11,589,623 0.05380 0.00190
Norway 3191 14 0.44 5,421,241 0.05886 0.00026
Sweden 2554 64 2.51 10,099,265 0.02529 0.00063
Denmark 1852 32 1.73 5,792,202 0.03197 0.00055
Japan 1307 45 3.44 126,476,461 0.00103 0.00004
Total (world) 487648 22030 4.52 7,500,000,000 0.00650 0.00029

25-Mar            
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81661 3285 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00567 0.00023
Italy 69176 6820 9.86 60,461,826 0.11441 0.01128
Iran 27017 2077 7.69 83,992,949 0.03217 0.00247
Spain 47610 3434 7.21 46,754,778 0.10183 0.00734
Germany 34009 172 0.51 83,783,942 0.04059 0.00021
US 53225 802 1.51 331,002,651 0.01608 0.00024
France 22637 1102 4.87 65,273,511 0.03468 0.00169
South Korea 9137 126 1.38 51,269,185 0.01782 0.00025
Switzerland 10171 135 1.33 8,654,622 0.11752 0.00156
UK 8167 423 5.18 67,886,011 0.01203 0.00062
Netherlands 5585 277 4.96 17,134,872 0.03259 0.00162
Austria 5499 30 0.55 9,006,398 0.06106 0.00033
Belgium 4937 178 3.61 11,589,623 0.04260 0.00154
Norway 2868 13 0.45 5,421,241 0.05290 0.00024
Sweden 2318 41 1.77 10,099,265 0.02295 0.00041
Denmark 1852 32 1.73 5,792,202 0.03197 0.00055
Japan 1193 43 3.60 126,476,461 0.00094 0.00003
Total (world) 435006 19625 4.51 7,500,000,000 0.00580 0.00026
 
24-Mar            
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81588 3281 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00567 0.00023
Italy 63927 6077 9.51 60,461,826 0.10573 0.01005
Iran 24811 1934 7.79 83,992,949 0.02954 0.00230
Spain 39673 2696 6.80 46,754,778 0.08485 0.00577
Germany 30150 130 0.43 83,783,942 0.03599 0.00016
US 46450 593 1.28 331,002,651 0.01403 0.00018
France 20149 862 4.28 65,273,511 0.03087 0.00132
South Korea 9037 120 1.33 51,269,185 0.01763 0.00023
Switzerland 9117 122 1.34 8,654,622 0.10534 0.00141
UK 6733 336 4.99 67,886,011 0.00992 0.00049
Netherlands 4767 214 4.49 17,134,872 0.02782 0.00125
Austria 4791 25 0.52 9,006,398 0.05320 0.00028
Belgium 4269 122 2.86 11,589,623 0.03683 0.00105
Norway 2647 11 0.42 5,421,241 0.04883 0.00020
Sweden 2059 33 1.60 10,099,265 0.02039 0.00033
Denmark 1703 32 1.88 5,792,202 0.02940 0.00055
Japan 1140 42 3.68 126,476,461 0.00090 0.00003
Total (world) 392331 17156 4.37 7,500,000,000 0.00523 0.00023
             
23-Mar            
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81496 3274 4.02 1,439,323,776 0.00566 0.00023
Italy 59138 5476 9.26 60,461,826 0.09781 0.00906
Iran 23049 1812 7.86 83,992,949 0.02744 0.00216
Spain 33089 2182 6.59 46,754,778 0.07077 0.00467
Germany 26220 111 0.42 83,783,942 0.03129 0.00013
US 35225 471 1.34 331,002,651 0.01064 0.00014
France 16720 676 4.04 65,273,511 0.02562 0.00104
South Korea 8961 111 1.24 51,269,185 0.01748 0.00022
Switzerland 8234 107 1.30 8,654,622 0.09514 0.00124
UK 5748 282 4.91 67,886,011 0.00847 0.00042
Netherlands 4217 180 4.27 17,134,872 0.02461 0.00105
Austria 3806 16 0.42 9,006,398 0.04226 0.00018
Belgium 3743 88 2.35 11,589,623 0.03230 0.00076
Norway 2415 8 0.33 5,421,241 0.04455 0.00015
Sweden 1934 25 1.29 10,099,265 0.01915 0.00025
Denmark 1572 13 0.83 5,792,202 0.02714 0.00022
Japan 1101 41 3.72 126,476,461 0.00087 0.00003
Total (world) 350536 15328 4.37 7,500,000,000 0.00467 0.00020
             
22-Mar            
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81394 3265 4.01 1,439,323,776 0.00566 0.00023
Italy 53578 4825 9.01 60,461,826 0.08861 0.00798
Iran 20610 1556 7.55 83,992,949 0.02454 0.00185
Spain 28572 1720 6.02 46,754,778 0.06111 0.00368
Germany 23129 93 0.40 83,783,942 0.02761 0.00011
US 26747 340 1.27 331,002,651 0.00808 0.00010
France 14485 562 3.88 65,273,511 0.02219 0.00086
South Korea 8897 104 1.17 51,269,185 0.01735 0.00020
Switzerland 6652 80 1.20 8,654,622 0.07686 0.00092
UK 5067 234 4.62 67,886,011 0.00746 0.00034
Netherlands 3643 137 3.76 17,134,872 0.02126 0.00080
Austria 3021 8 0.26 9,006,398 0.03354 0.00009
Belgium 2815 67 2.38 11,589,623 0.02429 0.00058
Norway 2216 7 0.32 5,421,241 0.04088 0.00013
Sweden 1770 20 1.13 10,099,265 0.01753 0.00020
Denmark 1420 13 0.92 5,792,202 0.02452 0.00022
Japan 1055 35 3.32 126,476,461 0.00083 0.00003
Total (world) 311988 13407 4.30 7,500,000,000 0.00416 0.00018
             
21-Mar            
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81303 3259 4.01 1,439,323,776 0.00565 0.00023
Italy 47021 4032 8.57 60,461,826 0.07777 0.00667
Iran 20610 1284 6.23 83,992,949 0.02454 0.00153
Spain 21571 833 3.86 46,754,778 0.04614 0.00178
Germany 20142 70 0.35 83,783,942 0.02404 0.00008
US 19624 260 1.32 331,002,651 0.00593 0.00008
France 12632 450 3.56 65,273,511 0.01935 0.00069
South Korea 8799 102 1.16 51,269,185 0.01716 0.00020
Switzerland 5544 56 1.01 8,654,622 0.06406 0.00065
UK 4014 178 4.43 67,886,011 0.00591 0.00026
Netherlands 3003 107 3.56 17,134,872 0.01753 0.00062
Austria 2664 7 0.26 9,006,398 0.02958 0.00008
Belgium 2815 67 2.38 11,589,623 0.02429 0.00058
Norway 1994 7 0.35 5,421,241 0.03678 0.00013
Sweden 1657 16 0.97 10,099,265 0.01641 0.00016
Denmark 1337 9 0.67 5,792,202 0.02308 0.00016
Japan 1007 33 3.28 126,476,461 0.00080 0.00003
Total (world) 278136 11570 4.16 7,500,000,000 0.00371 0.00015
             
20-Mar            
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81250 3253 4.00 1,439,323,776 0.00565 0.00023
Italy 41035 3402 8.29 60,461,826 0.06787 0.00563
Iran 18407 1284 6.98 83,992,949 0.02191 0.00153
Spain 18077 833 4.61 46,754,778 0.03866 0.00178
Germany 16290 44 0.27 83,783,942 0.01944 0.00005
US 14250 205 1.44 331,002,651 0.00431 0.00006
France 10891 371 3.41 65,273,511 0.01669 0.00057
South Korea 8652 94 1.09 51,269,185 0.01688 0.00018
Switzerland 4164 43 1.03 8,654,622 0.04811 0.00050
UK 2717 145 5.34 67,886,011 0.00400 0.00021
Netherlands 2468 77 3.12 17,134,872 0.01440 0.00045
Austria 2013 6 0.30 9,006,398 0.02235 0.00007
Belgium 1795 21 1.17 11,589,623 0.01549 0.00018
Norway 1781 7 0.39 5,421,241 0.03285 0.00013
Sweden 1439 11 0.76 10,099,265 0.01425 0.00011
Denmark 1225 6 0.49 5,792,202 0.02115 0.00010
Japan 943 33 3.50 126,476,461 0.00075 0.00003
Total (world) 246275 10031 4.07 7,500,000,000 0.00328 0.00013
             
19-Mar            
Country Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
China 81154 3249 4.00 1,439,323,776 0.00564 0.00023
Italy 35713 2978 8.34 60,461,826 0.05907 0.00493
Iran 18407 1284 6.98 83,992,949 0.02191 0.00153
Spain 15014 640 4.26 46,754,778 0.03211 0.00137
Germany 13093 31 0.24 83,783,942 0.01563 0.00004
US 9415 150 1.59 331,002,651 0.00284 0.00005
France 9058 243 2.68 65,273,511 0.01388 0.00037
South Korea 8565 91 1.06 51,269,185 0.01671 0.00018
Switzerland 3067 33 1.08 8,654,622 0.03544 0.00038
UK 2644 104 3.93 67,886,011 0.00389 0.00015
Netherlands 2056 59 2.87 17,134,872 0.012 0.00034
Austria 1843 5 0.27 9,006,398 0.02046 0.00006
Belgium 1795 21 1.17 11,589,623 0.01549 0.00018
Norway 1631 6 0.37 5,421,241 0.03009 0.00011
Sweden 1301 10 0.77 10,099,265 0.01288 0.0001
Denmark 1206 6 0.5 5,792,202 0.02082 0.0001
Japan 924 29 3.14 126,476,461 0.00073 0.00002
Total (world) 222642 9115 4.09 7,500,000,000 0.00297 0.00012
 

Table 4. Death percents for various states.

Percent deaths
States 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr
NY 0.90 0.81 1.03 1.11 1.18 1.31 1.56 1.62 1.99 2.25 2.64 2.66 2.84
WA 4.76 5.00 5.06 5.12 4.68 4.65 4.38 4.17 4.22 4.13 4.24 4.12 4.23
NJ 1.10 0.95 1.20 1.41 1.18 1.22 1.26 1.20 1.19 1.41 1.60 2.10 2.16
CA 1.93 1.94 2.05 2.11 2.03 2.09 2.12 2.08 2.02 2.13 2.18 2.19 2.24
IL 0.86 0.93 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.12 1.34 1.44 1.46 1.67 2.09 2.17 2.27
MI 0.87 1.13 1.34 1.87 2.14 2.52 2.40 2.40 2.85 3.40 3.60 3.86 3.76
FL 1.29 1.47 1.57 1.16 1.17 1.44 1.34 1.21 1.24 1.26 1.30 1.60 1.66
LA 2.39 2.99 3.31 3.62 3.60 4.33 4.13 4.27 4.60 4.56 4.25 3.38 3.59
TX 1.20 1.09 1.27 1.26 1.45 1.29 1.34 1.31 1.44 1.48 1.48 1.64 1.72
MA 0.77 1.16 0.95 0.82 1.03 1.08 1.03 0.97 0.97 1.34 1.58 1.72 1.85
GA 4.03 3.24 3.46 3.39 3.41 2.96 3.23 3.13 2.77 3.04 3.24 3.23 3.32
CO 1.18 0.97 1.21 1.84 1.33 1.78 2.13 2.04 1.94 2.32 2.36 2.60 2.65
PA 0.97 1.00 0.85 1.17 0.99 0.98 1.20 1.24 1.23 1.34 1.22 1.25 1.19
TN 0.40 0.33 0.26 0.33 0.27 0.45 0.46 0.66 0.72 0.96 0.82 1.27 1.43
WI 1.04 1.18 1.04 1.10 1.37 1.51 1.61 1.55 1.87 1.77 1.78 2.17 2.53
OH 0.84 1.35 1.41 1.56 1.72 1.67 1.78 1.75 2.07 2.50 2.55 2.79 2.75
CT 2.45 2.41 1.94 2.17 2.08 2.09 2.17 1.71 1.40 2.21 2.39 2.93 2.67
NC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.40 0.53 0.47 0.50 0.58 0.77 0.90 1.03 1.28
MD 1.20 1.03 1.14 0.94 0.69 0.64 0.47 1.21 1.06 1.14 1.56 1.54 1.56
VA 2.71 2.76 2.96 2.27 2.14 1.97 1.76 2.25 1.47 2.16 2.36 2.40 2.34
MS 0.48 0.40 0.31 1.33 1.24 1.38 1.96 1.84 1.89 2.13 2.05 2.21 2.14

Table 4 Continued

Percent deaths
5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr
3.12 3.38 3.61 3.91 4.15 4.37
4.17 4.30 4.57 4.54 4.66 4.69
2.48 2.45 2.44 2.77 3.17 3.35
2.33 2.31 2.37 2.56 2.66 2.71
2.36 2.45 2.25 2.80 3.06 3.22
3.80 3.93 4.22 4.45 4.71 5.00
1.69 1.79 1.86 2.01 2.06 2.20
3.27 3.67 3.44 3.57 3.83 3.84
1.78 1.92 1.88 1.91 1.92 1.94
1.84 1.85 1.88 2.34 2.58 2.66
3.26 3.25 3.89 3.80 3.63 3.79
2.76 2.83 2.89 3.30 3.41 3.64
1.32 1.30 1.36 1.67 1.90 1.96
1.51 1.46 1.71 1.74 1.83 2.03
2.82 3.23 3.39 3.61 3.66 3.84
2.73 2.94 3.19 3.49 3.75 3.86
3.13 3.33 2.98 3.56 3.82 3.88
1.37 1.53 1.64 1.73 1.87 2.13
1.70 1.85 2.25 2.36 2.24 2.23
2.16 1.97 2.29 1.98 2.06 2.70
2.41 2.63 2.93 3.13 3.34 3.36

Table 5. Confirmed cases by state.

Total Confirmed
States 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr
NY 16916 23230 26376 33033 39140 46094 53520 59746 67384 76049 84046 92743 103169
WA 1996 2221 2472 2600 3207 3762 4311 4896 5187 5453 5984 6595 6967
NJ 1914 2844 3675 4407 6876 8825 11124 13386 16636 18997 22255 25590 29895
CA 1813 2220 2628 3169 4040 4885 5648 6345 7394 8558 9907 11126 12507
IL 1050 1285 1537 1870 2542 3029 3498 4596 5058 5998 6980 7697 9266
MI 1038 1329 1793 2295 2844 3657 4659 5489 6498 7615 9315 10791 12744
FL 1007 1227 1467 1978 2484 3198 4038 4950 5704 6741 7773 9008 10268
LA 837 1172 1388 1795 2304 2746 3315 3540 4025 5237 6424 9159 10297
TX 668 826 1027 1345 1658 2009 2534 2823 3339 3925 4607 5253 6030
MA 646 777 1159 1838 2417 3240 4257 4955 5752 6620 7738 8966 10402
GA 621 803 1097 1387 1642 2198 2446 2683 3031 4117 4748 5444 5967
CO 595 723 912 1087 1430 1740 2063 2308 2627 2968 3342 3728 4181
PA 516 698 946 1284 1813 2345 2909 3465 4155 4994 6063 7345 8570
TN 505 614 779 916 1097 1321 1512 1818 1937 2391 2933 2845 3068
WI 383 425 482 638 728 926 1055 1164 1285 1412 1573 1748 2012
OH 356 443 567 704 870 1139 1406 1653 1933 2199 2547 2902 3312
CT 327 415 618 875 1012 1291 1524 1993 2571 3128 3557 3824 4914
NC 311 420 512 625 755 944 1063 1189 1379 1561 1768 2041 2336
MD 249 290 352 426 583 781 1068 1239 1413 1660 1986 2331 2758
VA 221 254 304 397 468 610 740 890 1020 1249 1484 1706 2012
MS 207 249 320 377 485 579 663 759 847 937 1073 1177 1358

Table 5. Continued

Total Confirmed
5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr
114174 123160 131830 140386 151079 161807
7632 7984 8384 8982 9277 9753
34124 37505 41090 44416 47437 51027
13904 15158 16349 17625 19031 20169
10360 11260 12264 13553 15078 16424
14225 15718 17221 18970 20346 21504
11545 12350 13629 14747 15698 16826
12496 13010 14867 16284 17030 18283
6872 7294 8157 9204 10077 11483
11736 12500 13837 15202 16790 18941
6383 6742 7558 9156 10206 10885
4565 4950 5186 5429 5655 6202
10507 11589 13206 14956 16746 18633
3322 3633 3802 4139 4363 4634
2128 2320 2511 2578 2812 2890
3739 4043 4453 4782 5148 5512
5276 5675 6906 7781 8781 9784
2549 2683 3054 3347 3576 3844
3172 3617 4045 4371 5529 6185
2407 2640 2878 3335 3645 4042
1455 1638 1738 1915 2003 2260

Table 6. Raw data for each state in the U.S. for each day.

10-Apr
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 161807 7067 4.37 19,453,561 0.83176 0.03633
WA 9753 457 4.69 7,614,893 0.12808 0.00600
NJ 51027 1709 3.35 8,882,190 0.57449 0.01924
CA 20169 547 2.71 39,512,223 0.05104 0.00138
IL 16424 529 3.22 12,671,821 0.12961 0.00417
MI 21504 1076 5.00 9,986,857 0.21532 0.01077
FL 16826 371 2.20 21,477,737 0.07834 0.00173
LA 18283 702 3.84 4,648,794 0.39328 0.01510
TX 11483 223 1.94 28,995,881 0.03960 0.00077
MA 18941 503 2.66 6,949,503 0.27255 0.00724
GA 10885 412 3.79 10,617,423 0.10252 0.00388
CO 6202 226 3.64 5,758,736 0.10770 0.00392
PA 18633 365 1.96 12,801,989 0.14555 0.00285
TN 4634 94 2.03 6,833,174 0.06782 0.00138
WI 2890 111 3.84 5,822,434 0.04964 0.00191
OH 5512 213 3.86 11,689,100 0.04716 0.00182
CT 9784 380 3.88 3,565,287 0.27442 0.01066
NC 3844 82 2.13 10,488,084 0.03665 0.00078
MD 6185 138 2.23 6,045,680 0.10230 0.00228
VA 4042 109 2.70 8,535,519 0.04736 0.00128
MS 2260 76 3.36 2,976,149 0.07594 0.00255
AL 2838 78 2.75 4,903,185 0.05788 0.00159
9-Apr
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 151079 6269 4.15 19,453,561 0.77661 0.03223
WA 9277 432 4.66 7,614,893 0.12183 0.00567
NJ 47437 1504 3.17 8,882,190 0.53407 0.01693
CA 19031 507 2.66 39,512,223 0.04816 0.00128
IL 15078 462 3.06 12,671,821 0.11899 0.00365
MI 20346 959 4.71 9,986,857 0.20373 0.00960
FL 15698 323 2.06 21,477,737 0.07309 0.00150
LA 17030 652 3.83 4,648,794 0.36633 0.01403
TX 10077 193 1.92 28,995,881 0.03475 0.00067
MA 16790 433 2.58 6,949,503 0.24160 0.00623
GA 10206 370 3.63 10,617,423 0.09613 0.00348
CO 5655 193 3.41 5,758,736 0.09820 0.00335
PA 16746 319 1.90 12,801,989 0.13081 0.00249
TN 4363 80 1.83 6,833,174 0.06385 0.00117
WI 2812 103 3.66 5,822,434 0.04830 0.00177
OH 5148 193 3.75 11,689,100 0.04404 0.00165
CT 8781 335 3.82 3,565,287 0.24629 0.00940
NC 3576 67 1.87 10,488,084 0.03410 0.00064
MD 5529 124 2.24 6,045,680 0.09145 0.00205
VA 3645 75 2.06 8,535,519 0.04270 0.00088
MS 2003 67 3.34 2,976,149 0.06730 0.00225
AL 2499 67 2.68 4,903,185 0.05097 0.00137
8-Apr
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 140386 5489 3.91 19,453,561 0.72165 0.02822
WA 8982 408 4.54 7,614,893 0.11795 0.00536
NJ 44416 1232 2.77 8,882,190 0.50006 0.01387
CA 17625 452 2.56 39,512,223 0.04461 0.00114
IL 13553 380 2.80 12,671,821 0.10695 0.00300
MI 18970 845 4.45 9,986,857 0.18995 0.00846
FL 14747 296 2.01 21,477,737 0.06866 0.00138
LA 16284 582 3.57 4,648,794 0.35028 0.01252
TX 9204 176 1.91 28,995,881 0.03174 0.00061
MA 15202 356 2.34 6,949,503 0.21875 0.00512
GA 9156 348 3.80 10,617,423 0.08624 0.00328
CO 5429 179 3.30 5,758,736 0.09427 0.00311
PA 14956 250 1.67 12,801,989 0.11683 0.00195
TN 4139 72 1.74 6,833,174 0.06057 0.00105
WI 2578 93 3.61 5,822,434 0.04428 0.00160
OH 4782 167 3.49 11,689,100 0.04091 0.00143
CT 7781 277 3.56 3,565,287 0.21824 0.00777
NC 3347 58 1.73 10,488,084 0.03191 0.00055
MD 4371 103 2.36 6,045,680 0.07230 0.00170
VA 3335 66 1.98 8,535,519 0.03907 0.00077
MS 1915 60 3.13 2,976,149 0.06434 0.00202
AL 2197 64 2.91 4,903,185 0.04481 0.00131
7-Apr
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 131830 4758 3.61 19,453,561 0.67767 0.02446
WA 8384 383 4.57 7,614,893 0.11010 0.00503
NJ 41090 1003 2.44 8,882,190 0.46261 0.01129
CA 16349 388 2.37 39,512,223 0.04138 0.00098
IL 12264 276 2.25 12,671,821 0.09678 0.00218
MI 17221 727 4.22 9,986,857 0.17244 0.00728
FL 13629 254 1.86 21,477,737 0.06346 0.00118
LA 14867 512 3.44 4,648,794 0.31980 0.01101
TX 8157 153 1.88 28,995,881 0.02813 0.00053
MA 13837 260 1.88 6,949,503 0.19911 0.00374
GA 7558 294 3.89 10,617,423 0.07118 0.00277
CO 5186 150 2.89 5,758,736 0.09005 0.00260
PA 13206 179 1.36 12,801,989 0.10316 0.00140
TN 3802 65 1.71 6,833,174 0.05564 0.00095
WI 2511 85 3.39 5,822,434 0.04313 0.00146
OH 4453 142 3.19 11,689,100 0.03810 0.00121
CT 6906 206 2.98 3,565,287 0.19370 0.00578
NC 3054 50 1.64 10,488,084 0.02912 0.00048
MD 4045 91 2.25 6,045,680 0.06691 0.00151
VA 2878 66 2.29 8,535,519 0.03372 0.00077
MS 1738 51 2.93 2,976,149 0.05840 0.00171
AL 2006 53 2.64 4,903,185 0.04091 0.00108
6-Apr
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 123160 4159 3.38 19,453,561 0.63310 0.02138
WA 7984 343 4.30 7,614,893 0.10485 0.00450
NJ 37505 917 2.45 8,882,190 0.42225 0.01032
CA 15158 350 2.31 39,512,223 0.03836 0.00089
IL 11260 276 2.45 12,671,821 0.08886 0.00218
MI 15718 617 3.93 9,986,857 0.15739 0.00618
FL 12350 221 1.79 21,477,737 0.05750 0.00103
LA 13010 477 3.67 4,648,794 0.27986 0.01026
TX 7294 140 1.92 28,995,881 0.02516 0.00048
MA 12500 231 1.85 6,949,503 0.17987 0.00332
GA 6742 219 3.25 10,617,423 0.06350 0.00206
CO 4950 140 2.83 5,758,736 0.08596 0.00243
PA 11589 151 1.30 12,801,989 0.09052 0.00118
TN 3633 53 1.46 6,833,174 0.05317 0.00078
WI 2320 75 3.23 5,822,434 0.03985 0.00129
OH 4043 119 2.94 11,689,100 0.03459 0.00102
CT 5675 189 3.33 3,565,287 0.15917 0.00530
NC 2683 41 1.53 10,488,084 0.02558 0.00039
MD 3617 67 1.85 6,045,680 0.05983 0.00111
VA 2640 52 1.97 8,535,519 0.03093 0.00061
MS 1638 43 2.63 2,976,149 0.05504 0.00144
IN 4411 127 2.88 6,732,219 0.06552 0.00189
SC 2049 44 2.15 5,148,714 0.03980 0.00085
NV 1836 46 2.51 3,080,156 0.05961 0.00149
UT 1612 8 0.50 3,205,958 0.05028 0.00025
MN 865 24 2.77 5,639,632 0.01534 0.00043
AR 853 16 1.88 3,017,825 0.02827 0.00053
OR 1068 27 2.53 4,217,737 0.02532 0.00064
AL 1841 45 2.44 4,903,185 0.03755 0.00092
AZ 2545 64 2.51 7,278,717 0.03496 0.00088
MO 2464 47 1.91 6,137,428 0.04015 0.00077
DC 1002 22 2.20 705,749 0.14198 0.00312
KY 955 45 4.71 4,467,673 0.02138 0.00101
IO 869 22 2.53 3,155,070 0.02754 0.00070
ME 470 10 2.13 1,344,212 0.03496 0.00074
RI 922 25 2.71 1,059,361 0.08703 0.00236
NH 669 9 1.35 1,359,711 0.04920 0.00066
OK 1254 46 3.67 3,956,971 0.03169 0.00116
KS 759 22 2.90 2,913,314 0.02605 0.00076
NM 686 12 1.75 2,096,829 0.03272 0.00057
DE 673 14 2.08 973,764 0.06911 0.00144
HI 371 4 1.08 1,415,872 0.02620 0.00028
VT 512 22 4.30 623,989 0.08205 0.00353
ID 1101 10 0.91 1,787,147 0.06161 0.00056
NE 364 8 2.20 1,934,408 0.01882 0.00041
MT 281 6 2.14 1,068,778 0.02629 0.00056
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 324 3 0.93 1,792,065 0.01808 0.00017
5-Apr            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 114174 3565 3.12 19,453,561 0.58691 0.01833
WA 7632 318 4.17 7,614,893 0.10022 0.00418
NJ 34124 846 2.48 8,882,190 0.38418 0.00952
CA 13904 324 2.33 39,512,223 0.03519 0.00082
IL 10360 245 2.36 12,671,821 0.08176 0.00193
MI 14225 540 3.80 9,986,857 0.14244 0.00541
FL 11545 195 1.69 21,477,737 0.05375 0.00091
LA 12496 409 3.27 4,648,794 0.26880 0.00880
TX 6872 122 1.78 28,995,881 0.02370 0.00042
MA 11736 216 1.84 6,949,503 0.16888 0.00311
GA 6383 208 3.26 10,617,423 0.06012 0.00196
CO 4565 126 2.76 5,758,736 0.07927 0.00219
PA 10507 139 1.32 12,801,989 0.08207 0.00109
TN 3322 50 1.51 6,833,174 0.04862 0.00073
WI 2128 60 2.82 5,822,434 0.03655 0.00103
OH 3739 102 2.73 11,689,100 0.03199 0.00087
CT 5276 165 3.13 3,565,287 0.14798 0.00463
NC 2549 35 1.37 10,488,084 0.02430 0.00033
MD 3172 54 1.70 6,045,680 0.05247 0.00089
VA 2407 52 2.16 8,535,519 0.02820 0.00061
MS 1455 35 2.41 2,976,149 0.04889 0.00118
IN 3953 116 2.93 6,732,219 0.05872 0.00172
SC 1917 40 2.09 5,148,714 0.03723 0.00078
NV 1742 46 2.64 3,080,156 0.05656 0.00149
UT 1435 8 0.56 3,205,958 0.04476 0.00025
MN 865 24 2.77 5,639,632 0.01534 0.00043
AR 743 14 1.88 3,017,825 0.02462 0.00046
OR 999 26 2.60 4,217,737 0.02369 0.00062
AL 1633 44 2.69 4,903,185 0.03330 0.00090
AZ 2236 52 2.33 7,278,717 0.03072 0.00071
MO 2345 43 1.83 6,137,428 0.03821 0.00070
DC 902 21 2.33 705,749 0.12781 0.00298
KY 917 40 4.36 4,467,673 0.02053 0.00090
IO 787 14 1.78 3,155,070 0.02494 0.00044
ME 456 10 2.19 1,344,212 0.03392 0.00074
RI 806 17 2.11 1,059,361 0.07608 0.00160
NH 621 9 1.45 1,359,711 0.04567 0.00066
OK 1161 42 3.62 3,956,971 0.02934 0.00106
KS 698 21 3.01 2,913,314 0.02396 0.00072
NM 588 11 1.87 2,096,829 0.02804 0.00052
DE 593 14 2.36 973,764 0.06090 0.00144
HI 351 3 0.85 1,415,872 0.02479 0.00021
VT 461 20 4.34 623,989 0.07388 0.00321
ID 1078 10 0.93 1,787,147 0.06032 0.00056
NE 323 8 2.48 1,934,408 0.01670 0.00041
MT 281 6 2.14 1,068,778 0.02629 0.00056
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 282 2 0.71 1,792,065 0.01574 0.00011
 
4-Apr            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 103169 2935 2.84 19,453,561 0.53033 0.01509
WA 6967 295 4.23 7,614,893 0.09149 0.00387
NJ 29895 646 2.16 8,882,190 0.33657 0.00727
CA 12507 280 2.24 39,512,223 0.03165 0.00071
IL 9266 210 2.27 12,671,821 0.07312 0.00166
MI 12744 479 3.76 9,986,857 0.12761 0.00480
FL 10268 170 1.66 21,477,737 0.04781 0.00079
LA 10297 370 3.59 4,648,794 0.22150 0.00796
TX 6030 104 1.72 28,995,881 0.02080 0.00036
MA 10402 192 1.85 6,949,503 0.14968 0.00276
GA 5967 198 3.32 10,617,423 0.05620 0.00186
CO 4181 111 2.65 5,758,736 0.07260 0.00193
PA 8570 102 1.19 12,801,989 0.06694 0.00080
TN 3068 44 1.43 6,833,174 0.04490 0.00064
WI 2012 51 2.53 5,822,434 0.03456 0.00088
OH 3312 91 2.75 11,689,100 0.02833 0.00078
CT 4914 131 2.67 3,565,287 0.13783 0.00367
NC 2336 30 1.28 10,488,084 0.02227 0.00029
MD 2758 43 1.56 6,045,680 0.04562 0.00071
VA 2012 47 2.34 8,535,519 0.02357 0.00055
MS 1358 29 2.14 2,976,149 0.04563 0.00097
IN 3437 102 2.97 6,732,219 0.05105 0.00152
SC 1700 34 2.00 5,148,714 0.03302 0.00066
NV 1559 43 2.76 3,080,156 0.05061 0.00140
UT 1255 7 0.56 3,205,958 0.03915 0.00022
MN 789 22 2.79 5,639,632 0.01399 0.00039
AR 738 12 1.63 3,017,825 0.02445 0.00040
OR 899 22 2.45 4,217,737 0.02131 0.00052
AL 1535 38 2.48 4,903,185 0.03131 0.00078
AZ 1937 41 2.12 7,278,717 0.02661 0.00056
MO 2155 33 1.53 6,137,428 0.03511 0.00054
DC 757 15 1.98 705,749 0.10726 0.00213
KY 831 37 4.45 4,467,673 0.01860 0.00083
IO 699 11 1.57 3,155,070 0.02215 0.00035
ME 432 9 2.08 1,344,212 0.03214 0.00067
RI 711 14 1.97 1,059,361 0.06712 0.00132
NH 540 7 1.30 1,359,711 0.03971 0.00051
OK 990 38 3.84 3,956,971 0.02502 0.00096
KS 629 18 2.86 2,913,314 0.02159 0.00062
NM 534 10 1.87 2,096,829 0.02547 0.00048
DE 450 14 3.11 973,764 0.04621 0.00144
HI 319 3 0.94 1,415,872 0.02253 0.00021
VT 389 17 4.37 623,989 0.06234 0.00272
ID 1013 10 0.99 1,787,147 0.05668 0.00056
NE 285 6 2.11 1,934,408 0.01473 0.00031
MT 262 5 1.91 1,068,778 0.02451 0.00047
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
3-Apr            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 92743 2468 2.66 19,453,561 0.47674 0.01269
WA 6595 272 4.12 7,614,893 0.08661 0.00357
NJ 25590 537 2.10 8,882,190 0.28810 0.00605
CA 11126 244 2.19 39,512,223 0.02816 0.00062
IL 7697 167 2.17 12,671,821 0.06074 0.00132
MI 10791 417 3.86 9,986,857 0.10805 0.00418
FL 9008 144 1.60 21,477,737 0.04194 0.00067
LA 9159 310 3.38 4,648,794 0.19702 0.00667
TX 5253 86 1.64 28,995,881 0.01812 0.00030
MA 8966 154 1.72 6,949,503 0.12902 0.00222
GA 5444 176 3.23 10,617,423 0.05127 0.00166
CO 3728 97 2.60 5,758,736 0.06474 0.00168
PA 7345 92 1.25 12,801,989 0.05737 0.00072
TN 2845 36 1.27 6,833,174 0.04164 0.00053
WI 1748 38 2.17 5,822,434 0.03002 0.00065
OH 2902 81 2.79 11,689,100 0.02483 0.00069
CT 3824 112 2.93 3,565,287 0.10726 0.00314
NC 2041 21 1.03 10,488,084 0.01946 0.00020
MD 2331 36 1.54 6,045,680 0.03856 0.00060
VA 1706 41 2.40 8,535,519 0.01999 0.00048
MS 1177 26 2.21 2,976,149 0.03955 0.00087
IN 3038 78 2.57 6,732,219 0.04513 0.00116
SC 1554 31 1.99 5,148,714 0.03018 0.00060
NV 1484 38 2.56 3,080,156 0.04818 0.00123
UT 1093 7 0.64 3,205,958 0.03409 0.00022
MN 742 18 2.43 5,639,632 0.01316 0.00032
AR 683 12 1.76 3,017,825 0.02263 0.00040
OR 826 21 2.54 4,217,737 0.01958 0.00050
AL 1270 32 2.52 4,903,185 0.02590 0.00065
AZ 1766 32 1.81 7,278,717 0.02426 0.00044
MO 1857 22 1.18 6,137,428 0.03026 0.00036
DC 653 12 1.84 705,749 0.09253 0.00170
KY 770 31 4.03 4,467,673 0.01723 0.00069
IO 614 11 1.79 3,155,070 0.01946 0.00035
ME 376 7 1.86 1,344,212 0.02797 0.00052
RI 657 12 1.83 1,059,361 0.06202 0.00113
NH 479 5 1.04 1,359,711 0.03523 0.00037
OK 881 34 3.86 3,956,971 0.02226 0.00086
KS 558 13 2.33 2,913,314 0.01915 0.00045
NM 442 7 1.58 2,096,829 0.02108 0.00033
DE 393 12 3.05 973,764 0.04036 0.00123
HI 283 2 0.71 1,415,872 0.01999 0.00014
VT 338 17 5.03 623,989 0.05417 0.00272
ID 891 9 1.01 1,787,147 0.04986 0.00050
NE 255 6 2.35 1,934,408 0.01318 0.00031
MT 217 6 2.76 1,068,778 0.02030 0.00056
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
2-Apr            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 84046 2220 2.64 19,453,561 0.43203 0.01141
WA 5984 254 4.24 7,614,893 0.07858 0.00334
NJ 22255 355 1.60 8,882,190 0.25056 0.00400
CA 9907 216 2.18 39,512,223 0.02507 0.00055
IL 6980 146 2.09 12,671,821 0.05508 0.00115
MI 9315 335 3.60 9,986,857 0.09327 0.00335
FL 7773 101 1.30 21,477,737 0.03619 0.00047
LA 6424 273 4.25 4,648,794 0.13819 0.00587
TX 4607 68 1.48 28,995,881 0.01589 0.00023
MA 7738 122 1.58 6,949,503 0.11135 0.00176
GA 4748 154 3.24 10,617,423 0.04472 0.00145
CO 3342 79 2.36 5,758,736 0.05803 0.00137
PA 6063 74 1.22 12,801,989 0.04736 0.00058
TN 2933 24 0.82 6,833,174 0.04292 0.00035
WI 1573 28 1.78 5,822,434 0.02702 0.00048
OH 2547 65 2.55 11,689,100 0.02179 0.00056
CT 3557 85 2.39 3,565,287 0.09977 0.00238
NC 1768 16 0.90 10,488,084 0.01686 0.00015
MD 1986 31 1.56 6,045,680 0.03285 0.00051
VA 1484 35 2.36 8,535,519 0.01739 0.00041
MS 1073 22 2.05 2,976,149 0.03605 0.00074
IN 2560 65 2.54 6,732,219 0.03803 0.00097
SC 1293 26 2.01 5,148,714 0.02511 0.00050
NV 1299 32 2.46 3,080,156 0.04217 0.00104
UT 1011 7 0.69 3,205,958 0.03154 0.00022
MN 689 17 2.47 5,639,632 0.01222 0.00030
AR 624 10 1.60 3,017,825 0.02068 0.00033
OR 736 19 2.58 4,217,737 0.01745 0.00045
AL 1107 28 2.53 4,903,185 0.02258 0.00057
AZ 1530 29 1.90 7,278,717 0.02102 0.00040
MO 1671 22 1.32 6,137,428 0.02723 0.00036
DC 586 11 1.88 705,749 0.08303 0.00156
KY 687 20 2.91 4,467,673 0.01538 0.00045
IO 550 9 1.64 3,155,070 0.01743 0.00029
ME 344 7 2.03 1,344,212 0.02559 0.00052
RI 566 10 1.77 1,059,361 0.05343 0.00094
NH 415 4 0.96 1,359,711 0.03052 0.00029
OK 721 30 4.16 3,956,971 0.01822 0.00076
KS 495 10 2.02 2,913,314 0.01699 0.00034
NM 387 6 1.55 2,096,829 0.01846 0.00029
DE 368 11 2.99 973,764 0.03779 0.00113
HI 256 1 0.39 1,415,872 0.01808 0.00007
VT 321 16 4.98 623,989 0.05144 0.00256
ID 668 9 1.35 1,787,147 0.03738 0.00050
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 217 6 2.76 1,068,778 0.02030 0.00056
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
1-Apr            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 76049 1714 2.25 19,453,561 0.39093 0.00881
WA 5453 225 4.13 7,614,893 0.07161 0.00295
NJ 18997 267 1.41 8,882,190 0.21388 0.00301
CA 8558 182 2.13 39,512,223 0.02166 0.00046
IL 5998 100 1.67 12,671,821 0.04733 0.00079
MI 7615 259 3.40 9,986,857 0.07625 0.00259
FL 6741 85 1.26 21,477,737 0.03139 0.00040
LA 5237 239 4.56 4,648,794 0.11265 0.00514
TX 3925 58 1.48 28,995,881 0.01354 0.00020
MA 6620 89 1.34 6,949,503 0.09526 0.00128
GA 4117 125 3.04 10,617,423 0.03878 0.00118
CO 2968 69 2.32 5,758,736 0.05154 0.00120
PA 4994 67 1.34 12,801,989 0.03901 0.00052
TN 2391 23 0.96 6,833,174 0.03499 0.00034
WI 1412 25 1.77 5,822,434 0.02425 0.00043
OH 2199 55 2.50 11,689,100 0.01881 0.00047
CT 3128 69 2.21 3,565,287 0.08773 0.00194
NC 1561 12 0.77 10,488,084 0.01488 0.00011
MD 1660 19 1.14 6,045,680 0.02746 0.00031
VA 1249 27 2.16 8,535,519 0.01463 0.00032
MS 937 20 2.13 2,976,149 0.03148 0.00067
IN 2158 49 2.27 6,732,219 0.03205 0.00073
SC 1083 22 2.03 5,148,714 0.02103 0.00043
NV 1138 26 2.28 3,080,156 0.03695 0.00084
UT 888 5 0.56 3,205,958 0.02770 0.00016
MN 629 12 1.91 5,639,632 0.01115 0.00021
AR 564 8 1.42 3,017,825 0.01869 0.00027
OR 606 16 2.64 4,217,737 0.01437 0.00038
AL 999 24 2.40 4,903,185 0.02037 0.00049
AZ 1289 24 1.86 7,278,717 0.01771 0.00033
MO 1406 15 1.07 6,137,428 0.02291 0.00024
DC 507 9 1.78 705,749 0.07184 0.00128
KY 632 18 2.85 4,467,673 0.01415 0.00040
IO 497 7 1.41 3,155,070 0.01575 0.00022
ME 303 5 1.65 1,344,212 0.02254 0.00037
RI 488 8 1.64 1,059,361 0.04607 0.00076
NH 357 3 0.84 1,359,711 0.02626 0.00022
OK 568 23 4.05 3,956,971 0.01435 0.00058
KS 441 9 2.04 2,913,314 0.01514 0.00031
NM 316 5 1.58 2,096,829 0.01507 0.00024
DE 318 10 3.14 973,764 0.03266 0.00103
HI 224 1 0.45 1,415,872 0.01582 0.00007
VT 293 13 4.44 623,989 0.04696 0.00208
ID 524 8 1.53 1,787,147 0.02932 0.00045
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 198 5 2.53 1,068,778 0.01853 0.00047
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
31-Mar            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 67384 1342 1.99 19,453,561 0.34638 0.00690
WA 5187 219 4.22 7,614,893 0.06812 0.00288
NJ 16636 198 1.19 8,882,190 0.18730 0.00223
CA 7394 149 2.02 39,512,223 0.01871 0.00038
IL 5058 74 1.46 12,671,821 0.03992 0.00058
MI 6498 185 2.85 9,986,857 0.06507 0.00185
FL 5704 71 1.24 21,477,737 0.02656 0.00033
LA 4025 185 4.60 4,648,794 0.08658 0.00398
TX 3339 48 1.44 28,995,881 0.01152 0.00017
MA 5752 56 0.97 6,949,503 0.08277 0.00081
GA 3031 84 2.77 10,617,423 0.02855 0.00079
CO 2627 51 1.94 5,758,736 0.04562 0.00089
PA 4155 51 1.23 12,801,989 0.03246 0.00040
TN 1937 14 0.72 6,833,174 0.02835 0.00020
WI 1285 24 1.87 5,822,434 0.02207 0.00041
OH 1933 40 2.07 11,689,100 0.01654 0.00034
CT 2571 36 1.40 3,565,287 0.07211 0.00101
NC 1379 8 0.58 10,488,084 0.01315 0.00008
MD 1413 15 1.06 6,045,680 0.02337 0.00025
VA 1020 15 1.47 8,535,519 0.01195 0.00018
MS 847 16 1.89 2,976,149 0.02846 0.00054
IN 1786 35 1.96 6,732,219 0.02653 0.00052
SC 925 18 1.95 5,148,714 0.01797 0.00035
NV 1044 18 1.72 3,080,156 0.03389 0.00058
UT 805 4 0.50 3,205,958 0.02511 0.00012
MN 576 10 1.74 5,639,632 0.01021 0.00018
AR 508 7 1.38 3,017,825 0.01683 0.00023
OR 606 16 2.64 4,217,737 0.01437 0.00038
AL 947 11 1.16 4,903,185 0.01931 0.00022
AZ 1158 20 1.73 7,278,717 0.01591 0.00027
MO 1110 13 1.17 6,137,428 0.01809 0.00021
DC 495 9 1.82 705,749 0.07014 0.00128
KY 480 11 2.29 4,467,673 0.01074 0.00025
IO 424 6 1.42 3,155,070 0.01344 0.00019
ME 275 3 1.09 1,344,212 0.02046 0.00022
RI 408 4 0.98 1,059,361 0.03851 0.00038
NH 314 3 0.96 1,359,711 0.02309 0.00022
OK 481 17 3.53 3,956,971 0.01216 0.00043
KS 374 8 2.14 2,913,314 0.01284 0.00027
NM 281 4 1.42 2,096,829 0.01340 0.00019
DE 264 7 2.65 973,764 0.02711 0.00072
HI 204 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.01441 0.00000
VT 256 12 4.69 623,989 0.04103 0.00192
ID 431 8 1.86 1,787,147 0.02412 0.00045
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 177 5 2.82 1,068,778 0.01656 0.00047
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
30-Mar            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 59746 966 1.62 19,453,561 0.30712 0.00497
WA 4896 204 4.17 7,614,893 0.06430 0.00268
NJ 13386 161 1.20 8,882,190 0.15071 0.00181
CA 6345 132 2.08 39,512,223 0.01606 0.00033
IL 4596 66 1.44 12,671,821 0.03627 0.00052
MI 5489 132 2.40 9,986,857 0.05496 0.00132
FL 4950 60 1.21 21,477,737 0.02305 0.00028
LA 3540 151 4.27 4,648,794 0.07615 0.00325
TX 2823 37 1.31 28,995,881 0.00974 0.00013
MA 4955 48 0.97 6,949,503 0.07130 0.00069
GA 2683 84 3.13 10,617,423 0.02527 0.00079
CO 2308 47 2.04 5,758,736 0.04008 0.00082
PA 3465 43 1.24 12,801,989 0.02707 0.00034
TN 1818 12 0.66 6,833,174 0.02661 0.00018
WI 1164 18 1.55 5,822,434 0.01999 0.00031
OH 1653 29 1.75 11,689,100 0.01414 0.00025
CT 1993 34 1.71 3,565,287 0.05590 0.00095
NC 1189 6 0.50 10,488,084 0.01134 0.00006
MD 1239 15 1.21 6,045,680 0.02049 0.00025
VA 890 20 2.25 8,535,519 0.01043 0.00023
MS 759 14 1.84 2,976,149 0.02550 0.00047
IN 1513 32 2.12 6,732,219 0.02247 0.00048
SC 774 16 2.07 5,148,714 0.01503 0.00031
NV 920 15 1.63 3,080,156 0.02987 0.00049
UT 722 4 0.55 3,205,958 0.02252 0.00012
MN 503 9 1.79 5,639,632 0.00892 0.00016
AR 449 6 1.34 3,017,825 0.01488 0.00020
OR 549 13 2.37 4,217,737 0.01302 0.00031
AL 830 20 2.41 4,903,185 0.01693 0.00041
AZ 919 17 1.85 7,278,717 0.01263 0.00023
MO 918 13 1.42 6,137,428 0.01496 0.00021
DC 401 9 2.24 705,749 0.05682 0.00128
KY 438 9 2.05 4,467,673 0.00980 0.00020
IO 336 4 1.19 3,155,070 0.01065 0.00013
ME 253 3 1.19 1,344,212 0.01882 0.00022
RI 294 3 1.02 1,059,361 0.02775 0.00028
NH 258 3 1.16 1,359,711 0.01897 0.00022
OK 429 16 3.73 3,956,971 0.01084 0.00040
KS 330 7 2.12 2,913,314 0.01133 0.00024
NM 237 2 0.84 2,096,829 0.01130 0.00010
DE 232 6 2.59 973,764 0.02383 0.00062
HI 175 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.01236 0.00000
VT 235 12 5.11 623,989 0.03766 0.00192
ID 324 6 1.85 1,787,147 0.01813 0.00034
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 67 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00627 0.00000
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
29-Mar            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 53520 834 1.56 19,453,561 0.27512 0.00429
WA 4311 189 4.38 7,614,893 0.05661 0.00248
NJ 11124 140 1.26 8,882,190 0.12524 0.00158
CA 5648 120 2.12 39,512,223 0.01429 0.00030
IL 3498 47 1.34 12,671,821 0.02760 0.00037
MI 4659 112 2.40 9,986,857 0.04665 0.00112
FL 4038 54 1.34 21,477,737 0.01880 0.00025
LA 3315 137 4.13 4,648,794 0.07131 0.00295
TX 2534 34 1.34 28,995,881 0.00874 0.00012
MA 4257 44 1.03 6,949,503 0.06126 0.00063
GA 2446 79 3.23 10,617,423 0.02304 0.00074
CO 2063 44 2.13 5,758,736 0.03582 0.00076
PA 2909 35 1.20 12,801,989 0.02272 0.00027
TN 1512 7 0.46 6,833,174 0.02213 0.00010
WI 1055 17 1.61 5,822,434 0.01812 0.00029
OH 1406 25 1.78 11,689,100 0.01203 0.00021
CT 1524 33 2.17 3,565,287 0.04275 0.00093
NC 1063 5 0.47 10,488,084 0.01014 0.00005
MD 1068 5 0.47 6,045,680 0.01767 0.00008
VA 740 13 1.76 8,535,519 0.00867 0.00015
MS 663 13 1.96 2,976,149 0.02228 0.00044
IN 1231 31 2.52 6,732,219 0.01829 0.00046
SC 660 15 2.27 5,148,714 0.01282 0.00029
NV 738 14 1.90 3,080,156 0.02396 0.00045
UT 603 2 0.33 3,205,958 0.01881 0.00006
MN 441 5 1.13 5,639,632 0.00782 0.00009
AR 409 5 1.22 3,017,825 0.01279 0.01355
OR 479 13 2.71 4,217,737 0.01136 0.00031
AL 721 9 1.25 4,903,185 0.01470 0.00018
AZ 773 15 1.94 7,278,717 0.01062 0.00021
MO 843 11 1.30 6,137,428 0.01374 0.00018
DC 342 4 1.17 705,749 0.04846 0.00057
KY 393 9 2.29 4,467,673 0.00880 0.00020
IO 298 3 1.01 3,155,070 0.00945 0.00010
ME 211 1 0.47 1,344,212 0.01570 0.00007
RI 239 2 0.84 1,059,361 0.02256 0.00019
NH 214 2 0.93 1,359,711 0.01574 0.00015
OK 377 15 3.98 3,956,971 0.00953 0.00038
KS 269 5 1.86 2,913,314 0.00923 0.00017
NM 208 2 0.96 2,096,829 0.00992 0.00010
DE 214 5 2.34 973,764 0.02198 0.00051
HI 95 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.00671 0.00000
VT 211 12 5.69 623,989 0.03381 0.00192
ID 265 5 1.89 1,787,147 0.01483 0.00028
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 67 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00627 0.00000
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
28-Mar            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 46094 605 1.31 19,453,561 0.23694 0.00311
WA 3762 175 4.65 7,614,893 0.04940 0.00230
NJ 8825 108 1.22 8,882,190 0.09936 0.00122
CA 4885 102 2.09 39,512,223 0.01236 0.00026
IL 3029 34 1.12 12,671,821 0.02390 0.00027
MI 3657 92 2.52 9,986,857 0.03662 0.00092
FL 3198 46 1.44 21,477,737 0.01489 0.00021
LA 2746 119 4.33 4,648,794 0.05907 0.00256
TX 2009 26 1.29 28,995,881 0.00693 0.00009
MA 3240 35 1.08 6,949,503 0.04662 0.00050
GA 2198 65 2.96 10,617,423 0.02070 0.00061
CO 1740 31 1.78 5,758,736 0.03021 0.00054
PA 2345 23 0.98 12,801,989 0.01832 0.00018
TN 1321 6 0.45 6,833,174 0.01933 0.00009
WI 926 14 1.51 5,822,434 0.01590 0.00024
OH 1139 19 1.67 11,689,100 0.00974 0.00016
CT 1291 27 2.09 3,565,287 0.03621 0.00076
NC 944 5 0.53 10,488,084 0.00900 0.00005
MD 781 5 0.64 6,045,680 0.01292 0.00008
VA 610 12 1.97 8,535,519 0.00715 0.00014
MS 579 8 1.38 2,976,149 0.01945 0.00027
IN 981 25 2.55 6,732,219 0.01457 0.00037
SC 542 13 2.40 5,148,714 0.01053 0.00025
NV 621 10 1.61 3,080,156 0.02016 0.00032
UT 479 1 0.21 3,205,958 0.01494 0.00003
MN 398 4 1.01 5,639,632 0.00706 0.00007
AR 386 3 0.78 3,017,825 0.01279 0.00010
OR 414 12 2.90 4,217,737 0.00982 0.00028
AL 639 4 0.63 4,903,185 0.01303 0.00008
AZ 665 13 1.95 7,278,717 0.00914 0.00018
MO 705 9 1.28 6,137,428 0.01149 0.00015
DC 304 4 1.32 705,749 0.04307 0.00057
KY 301 7 2.33 4,467,673 0.00674 0.00016
IO 235 3 1.28 3,155,070 0.00745 0.00010
ME 168 1 0.60 1,344,212 0.01250 0.00007
RI 203 0 0.00 1,059,361 0.01916 0.00000
NH 187 2 1.07 1,359,711 0.01375 0.00015
OK 322 8 2.48 3,956,971 0.00814 0.00020
KS 219 4 1.83 2,913,314 0.00752 0.00014
NM 191 1 0.52 2,096,829 0.00911 0.00005
DE 165 2 1.21 973,764 0.01694 0.00021
HI 95 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.00671 0.00000
VT 184 10 5.43 623,989 0.02949 0.00160
ID 234 4 1.71 1,787,147 0.01309 0.00022
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 67 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00627 0.00000
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
27-Mar            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 39140 461 1.18 19,453,561 0.20120 0.00237
WA 3207 150 4.68 7,614,893 0.04211 0.00197
NJ 6876 81 1.18 8,882,190 0.07741 0.00091
CA 4040 82 2.03 39,512,223 0.01022 0.00021
IL 2542 26 1.02 12,671,821 0.02006 0.00021
MI 2844 61 2.14 9,986,857 0.02848 0.00061
FL 2484 29 1.17 21,477,737 0.01157 0.00014
LA 2304 83 3.60 4,648,794 0.04956 0.00179
TX 1658 24 1.45 28,995,881 0.00572 0.00008
MA 2417 25 1.03 6,949,503 0.03478 0.00036
GA 1642 56 3.41 10,617,423 0.01547 0.00053
CO 1430 19 1.33 5,758,736 0.02483 0.00033
PA 1813 18 0.99 12,801,989 0.01416 0.00014
TN 1097 3 0.27 6,833,174 0.01605 0.00004
WI 728 10 1.37 5,822,434 0.01250 0.00017
OH 870 15 1.72 11,689,100 0.00744 0.00013
CT 1012 21 2.08 3,565,287 0.02838 0.00059
NC 755 3 0.40 10,488,084 0.00720 0.00003
MD 583 4 0.69 6,045,680 0.00964 0.00007
VA 468 10 2.14 8,535,519 0.00548 0.00012
MS 485 6 1.24 2,976,149 0.01630 0.00020
IN 657 17 2.59 6,732,219 0.00976 0.00025
SC 456 9 1.97 5,148,714 0.00886 0.00017
NV 536 10 1.87 3,080,156 0.01740 0.00032
UT 396 1 0.25 3,205,958 0.01235 0.00003
MN 344 2 0.58 5,639,632 0.00610 0.00004
AR 349 2 0.57 3,017,825 0.01156 0.00007
OR 317 11 3.47 4,217,737 0.00752 0.00026
AL 531 1 0.19 4,903,185 0.01083 0.00002
AZ 508 8 1.57 7,278,717 0.00698 0.00011
MO 520 9 1.73 6,137,428 0.00847 0.00015
DC 267 3 1.12 705,749 0.03783 0.00043
KY 247 5 2.02 4,467,673 0.00553 0.00011
IO 179 1 0.56 3,155,070 0.00567 0.00003
ME 155 0 0.00 1,344,212 0.01153 0.00000
RI 165 0 0.00 1,059,361 0.01558 0.00000
NH 154 1 0.65 1,359,711 0.01133 0.00007
OK 248 7 2.82 3,956,971 0.00627 0.00018
KS 172 3 1.74 2,913,314 0.00590 0.00010
NM 113 1 0.88 2,096,829 0.00539 0.00005
DE 143 1 0.70 973,764 0.01469 0.00010
HI 95 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.00671 0.00000
VT 158 9 5.70 623,989 0.02532 0.00144
ID 191 3 1.57 1,787,147 0.01069 0.00017
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 67 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00627 0.00000
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
26-Mar            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 33033 366 1.11 19,453,561 0.16980 0.00188
WA 2600 133 5.12 7,614,893 0.03414 0.00175
NJ 4407 62 1.41 8,882,190 0.04962 0.00070
CA 3169 67 2.11 39,512,223 0.00802 0.00017
IL 1870 19 1.02 12,671,821 0.01476 0.00015
MI 2295 43 1.87 9,986,857 0.02298 0.00043
FL 1978 23 1.16 21,477,737 0.00921 0.00011
LA 1795 65 3.62 4,648,794 0.03861 0.00140
TX 1345 17 1.26 28,995,881 0.00464 0.00006
MA 1838 15 0.82 6,949,503 0.02645 0.00022
GA 1387 47 3.39 10,617,423 0.01306 0.00044
CO 1087 20 1.84 5,758,736 0.01888 0.00035
PA 1284 15 1.17 12,801,989 0.01003 0.00012
TN 916 3 0.33 6,833,174 0.01341 0.00004
WI 638 7 1.10 5,822,434 0.01096 0.00012
OH 704 11 1.56 11,689,100 0.00602 0.00009
CT 875 19 2.17 3,565,287 0.02454 0.00053
NC 625 2 0.32 10,488,084 0.00596 0.00002
MD 426 4 0.94 6,045,680 0.00705 0.00007
VA 397 9 2.27 8,535,519 0.00465 0.00011
MS 377 5 1.33 2,976,149 0.01267 0.00017
IN 478 14 2.93 6,732,219 0.00710 0.00021
SC 424 7 1.65 5,148,714 0.00824 0.00014
NV 405 10 2.47 3,080,156 0.01315 0.00032
UT 340 1 0.29 3,205,958 0.01061 0.00003
MN 286 1 0.35 5,639,632 0.00507 0.00002
AR 308 2 0.65 3,017,825 0.01021 0.00007
OR 266 10 3.76 4,217,737 0.00631 0.00024
AL 439 1 0.23 4,903,185 0.00895 0.00002
AZ 401 6 1.50 7,278,717 0.00551 0.00008
MO 377 8 2.12 6,137,428 0.00614 0.00013
DC 231 3 1.30 705,749 0.03273 0.00043
KY 197 5 2.54 4,467,673 0.00441 0.00011
IO 146 1 0.68 3,155,070 0.00463 0.00003
ME 142 0 0.00 1,344,212 0.01056 0.00000
RI 132 0 0.00 1,059,361 0.01246 0.00000
NH 137 1 0.73 1,359,711 0.01008 0.00007
OK 164 6 3.66 3,956,971 0.00414 0.00015
KS 137 3 2.19 2,913,314 0.00470 0.00010
NM 113 1 0.88 2,096,829 0.00539 0.00005
DE 119 0 0.00 973,764 0.01222 0.00000
HI 95 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.00671 0.00000
VT 125 8 6.40 623,989 0.02003 0.00128
ID 138 0 0.00 1,787,147 0.00772 0.00000
NE 74 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00383 0.00000
MT 67 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00627 0.00000
AK 41 1 2.44 731,545 0.00560 0.00014
ND 45 0 0.00 762,062 0.00591 0.00000
WY 49 0 0.00 578,759 0.00847 0.00000
SD 41 1 2.44 884,659 0.00463 0.00011
WV 52 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00290 0.00000
 
25-Mar            
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 26376 271 1.03 19,453,561 0.13558 0.00139
WA 2472 125 5.06 7,614,893 0.03246 0.00164
NJ 3675 44 1.20 8,882,190 0.04137 0.00050
CA 2628 54 2.05 39,512,223 0.00665 0.00014
IL 1537 16 1.04 12,671,821 0.01213 0.00013
MI 1793 24 1.34 9,986,857 0.01795 0.00024
FL 1467 23 1.57 21,477,737 0.00683 0.00011
LA 1388 46 3.31 4,648,794 0.02986 0.00099
TX 1027 13 1.27 28,995,881 0.00354 0.00004
MA 1159 11 0.95 6,949,503 0.01668 0.00016
GA 1097 38 3.46 10,617,423 0.01033 0.00036
CO 912 11 1.21 5,758,736 0.01584 0.00019
PA 946 8 0.85 12,801,989 0.00739 0.00006
TN 779 2 0.26 6,833,174 0.01140 0.00003
WI 482 5 1.04 5,822,434 0.00828 0.00009
OH 567 8 1.41 11,689,100 0.00485 0.00007
CT 618 12 1.94 3,565,287 0.01733 0.00034
NC 512 0 0.00 10,488,084 0.00488 0.00000
MD 352 4 1.14 6,045,680 0.00582 0.00007
VA 304 9 2.96 8,535,519 0.00356 0.00011
MS 320 1 0.31 2,976,149 0.01075 0.00003
IN 369 12 3.25 6,732,219 0.00548 0.00018
SC 342 7 2.05 5,148,714 0.00664 0.00014
NV 285 6 2.11 3,080,156 0.00925 0.00019
UT 298 1 0.34 3,205,958 0.00930 0.00003
MN 261 1 0.38 5,639,632 0.00463 0.00002
AR 232 2 0.86 3,017,825 0.00769 0.00007
OR 211 8 3.79 4,217,737 0.00500 0.00019
AL 242 0 0.00 4,903,185 0.00494 0.00000
AZ 326 6 1.84 7,278,717 0.00448 0.00008
MO 278 8 2.88 6,137,428 0.00453 0.00013
DC 187 2 1.07 705,749 0.02650 0.00028
KY 162 4 2.47 4,467,673 0.00363 0.00009
IO 125 1 0.80 3,155,070 0.00396 0.00003
ME 118 0 0.00 1,344,212 0.00878 0.00000
RI 124 0 0.00 1,059,361 0.01171 0.00000
NH 108 1 0.93 1,359,711 0.00794 0.00007
OK 106 3 2.83 3,956,971 0.00268 0.00008
KS 85 2 2.35 2,913,314 0.00292 0.00007
NM 83 0 0.00 2,096,829 0.00396 0.00000
DE 104 0 0.00 973,764 0.01068 0.00000
HI 77 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.00544 0.00000
VT 75 5 6.67 623,989 0.01202 0.00080
ID 63 0 0.00 1,787,147 0.00353 0.00000
NE 64 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00331 0.00000
MT 46 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00430 0.00000
AK 34 0 0.00 731,545 0.00465 0.00000
ND 33 0 0.00 762,062 0.00433 0.00000
WY 28 0 0.00 578,759 0.00484 0.00000
SD 28 1 3.57 884,659 0.00317 0.00011
WV 20 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00112 0.00000
 

24-Mar
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 23230 188 0.81 19,453,561 0.11941 0.00097
WA 2221 111 5.00 7,614,893 0.02917 0.00146
NJ 2844 27 0.95 8,882,190 0.03202 0.00030
CA 2220 43 1.94 39,512,223 0.00562 0.00011
IL 1285 12 0.93 12,671,821 0.01014 0.00009
MI 1329 15 1.13 9,986,857 0.01331 0.00015
FL 1227 18 1.47 21,477,737 0.00571 0.00008
LA 1172 35 2.99 4,648,794 0.02521 0.00075
TX 826 9 1.09 28,995,881 0.00285 0.00003
MA 777 9 1.16 6,949,503 0.01118 0.00013
GA 803 26 3.24 10,617,423 0.00756 0.00024
CO 723 7 0.97 5,758,736 0.01255 0.00012
PA 698 7 1.00 12,801,989 0.00545 0.00005
TN 614 2 0.33 6,833,174 0.00899 0.00003
WI 425 5 1.18 5,822,434 0.00730 0.00009
OH 443 6 1.35 11,689,100 0.00379 0.00005
CT 415 10 2.41 3,565,287 0.01164 0.00028
NC 420 0 0.00 10,488,084 0.00400 0.00000
MD 290 3 1.03 6,045,680 0.00480 0.00005
VA 254 7 2.76 8,535,519 0.00298 0.00008
MS 249 1 0.40 2,976,149 0.00837 0.00003
IN 271 7 2.58 6,732,219 0.00403 0.00010
SC 298 5 1.68 5,148,714 0.00579 0.00010
NV 263 4 1.52 3,080,156 0.00854 0.00013
UT 257 1 0.39 3,205,958 0.00802 0.00003
MN 234 1 0.43 5,639,632 0.00415 0.00002
AR 197 0 0.00 3,017,825 0.00653 0.00000
OR 191 5 2.62 4,217,737 0.00453 0.00012
AL 196 0 0.00 4,903,185 0.00400 0.00000
AZ 235 3 1.28 7,278,717 0.00323 0.00004
MO 216 5 2.31 6,137,428 0.00352 0.00008
DC 141 2 1.42 705,749 0.01998 0.00028
KY 123 4 3.25 4,467,673 0.00275 0.00009
IO 105 0 0.00 3,155,070 0.00333 0.00000
ME 107 0 0.00 1,344,212 0.00796 0.00000
RI 106 0 0.00 1,059,361 0.01001 0.00000
NH 101 1 0.99 1,359,711 0.00743 0.00007
OK 81 2 2.47 3,956,971 0.00205 0.00005
KS 85 2 2.35 2,913,314 0.00292 0.00007
NM 83 0 0.00 2,096,829 0.00396 0.00000
DE 87 0 0.00 973,764 0.00893 0.00000
HI 77 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.00544 0.00000
VT 75 5 6.67 623,989 0.01202 0.00080
ID 63 0 0.00 1,787,147 0.00353 0.00000
NE 64 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00331 0.00000
MT 46 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00430 0.00000
AK 34 0 0.00 731,545 0.00465 0.00000
ND 33 0 0.00 762,062 0.00433 0.00000
WY 28 0 0.00 578,759 0.00484 0.00000
SD 28 1 3.57 884,659 0.00317 0.00011
WV 20 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00112 0.00000
23-Mar
States Total Confirmed Deaths Percent Total Pop Percent of confirmed Percent of deaths
NY 16916 153 0.90 19,453,561 0.08696 0.00079
WA 1996 95 4.76 7,614,893 0.02621 0.00125
NJ 1914 21 1.10 8,882,190 0.02155 0.00024
CA 1813 35 1.93 39,512,223 0.00459 0.00009
IL 1050 9 0.86 12,671,821 0.00829 0.00007
MI 1038 9 0.87 9,986,857 0.01039 0.00009
FL 1007 13 1.29 21,477,737 0.00469 0.00006
LA 837 20 2.39 4,648,794 0.01800 0.00043
TX 668 8 1.20 28,995,881 0.00230 0.00003
MA 646 5 0.77 6,949,503 0.00930 0.00007
GA 621 25 4.03 10,617,423 0.00585 0.00024
CO 595 7 1.18 5,758,736 0.01033 0.00012
PA 516 5 0.97 12,801,989 0.00403 0.00004
TN 505 2 0.40 6,833,174 0.00739 0.00003
WI 383 4 1.04 5,822,434 0.00658 0.00007
OH 356 3 0.84 11,689,100 0.00305 0.00003
CT 327 8 2.45 3,565,287 0.00917 0.00022
NC 311 0 0.00 10,488,084 0.00297 0.00000
MD 249 3 1.20 6,045,680 0.00412 0.00005
VA 221 6 2.71 8,535,519 0.00259 0.00007
MS 207 1 0.48 2,976,149 0.00696 0.00003
IN 204 7 3.43 6,732,219 0.00303 0.00010
SC 196 3 1.53 5,148,714 0.00381 0.00006
NV 191 2 1.05 3,080,156 0.00620 0.00006
UT 181 1 0.55 3,205,958 0.00565 0.00003
MN 169 1 0.59 5,639,632 0.00300 0.00002
AR 165 0 0.00 3,017,825 0.00547 0.00000
OR 161 5 3.11 4,217,737 0.00382 0.00012
AL 157 0 0.00 4,903,185 0.00320 0.00000
AZ 152 2 1.32 7,278,717 0.00209 0.00003
MO 150 3 2.00 6,137,428 0.00244 0.00005
DC 120 2 1.67 705,749 0.01700 0.00028
KY 103 3 2.91 4,467,673 0.00231 0.00007
IO 90 0 0.00 3,155,070 0.00285 0.00000
ME 89 0 0.00 1,344,212 0.00662 0.00000
RI 83 0 0.00 1,059,361 0.00783 0.00000
NH 78 0 0.00 1,359,711 0.00574 0.00000
OK 68 2 2.94 3,956,971 0.00172 0.00005
KS 67 2 2.99 2,913,314 0.00230 0.00007
NM 65 0 0.00 2,096,829 0.00310 0.00000
DE 56 0 0.00 973,764 0.00575 0.00000
HI 56 0 0.00 1,415,872 0.00396 0.00000
VT 52 2 3.85 623,989 0.00833 0.00032
ID 51 0 0.00 1,787,147 0.00285 0.00000
NE 51 0 0.00 1,934,408 0.00264 0.00000
MT 34 0 0.00 1,068,778 0.00318 0.00000
AK 30 0 0.00 731,545 0.00410 0.00000
ND 30 0 0.00 762,062 0.00394 0.00000
WY 26 0 0.00 578,759 0.00449 0.00000
SD 21 1 4.76 884,659 0.00237 0.00011
WV 16 0 0.00 1,792,065 0.00089 0.00000

Note: this paper will be published in Skeptic Magazine in March, 2017

In case you are not familiar with how college football determines the four teams that are picked to contend for the national championship, I refer you to the Selection Committee Protocol which is a guide on how the committee chooses the four playoff teams at the end of the regular season and after the league championship games.  The first words of the protocol are telling: “Ranking football teams is an art, not a science.”  The protocol specifically calls into question any rigorous mathematical approach: “Nuanced mathematical formulas ignore some teams who “deserve” to be selected.”  For those that are not aficionados of the college football selection, the previous selection process used computer polls as one third of the formula to determine the final two teams (before the four-team process was initiated in 2014 – the other two thirds of the formula came from the Associated Press and Harris polls).  What I hope to show in this essay is that 1) humans are primed with natural biases (whether they realize it or not) and therefore, are not effective at simultaneously considering the huge amounts of data available and 2) computer algorithms are spectacularly successful at analyzing massive data bases, sometimes called “deep data”, to ascertain the best choices for the playoff system.

So what are the guidelines that instruct the 13 member college playoff panel?  They are somewhat obvious and include “conference championship wins, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes of common opponents, and other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.”  I hasten to point out that strength of schedule can only be determined by “nuanced mathematical” rigor.  The guidelines fall into two categories: facts (e.g., conference champions) and opinions (e.g., whether a key injury will impact team performance).   My argument is to eliminate opinions and choose the final 4 teams in the most rational and unbiased fashion — that is, use computer algorithms.  Exceptions to the computer rankings could be made by the committee when facts like conference championships play an important role.  For example, if Notre Dame and Florida State University each had one loss at the end of the season but the computer rankings had Notre Dame above FSU, the committee might override the computer rankings and choose FSU over ND if FSU won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship (ND is not in a conference and therefore cannot win conference championships).  Let me spend some time justifying my proposed selection process.

I have created a table below which shows the top 15 teams in the final polls of the 2015 season along with their won-loss records for reference purposes.  The first two polls are the AP and Coaches polls and the final two are the Sagarin and Colley computer polls.  Keeping in mind that the computer algorithms that determine the computer polls have no human intervention (the data on wins and score differentials are simply entered into the matrices), it is remarkable that the computer polls agree so closely with the human polls particularly within the top 5 teams (remember there are 128 teams in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision – FBS in 2015).  The details of the computer algorithms are discussed at the end of the essay.

rankingsRankings from the final week of the 2015 season.

I agree that informed opinions can be important and a group of football experts might have insights into the game that mere mortals might not.  Many of the committee members are former coaches and athletic directors, but I am concerned that opinions from former coaches and athletic directors might be tainted by the teams and conferences they come from (they might not even know they are biased).  What is the difference between an informed and prejudiced opinion?  I am not sure, but can these men and women be truly neutral?   There is a massive amount of scientific research that shows that we have difficulties being unbiased.  Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman has written an entire book on heuristic and cognitive biases1.  A good example comes from witnesses of crimes or traffic accidents.  Any good detective knows to take eye-witness testimonies before the witnesses have had a chance to discuss the event because studies show that witnesses that share information will tend to foster similar errors about the event.   And the research also shows that eye-witnesses are notoriously inaccurate.  Elizabeth Loftus has written an immensely entertaining book about her research involving witness error and bias if you care to delve into the details2.  Loftus writes: ” In my experiments, conducted with thousands of subjects over decades, I’ve molded people’s memories, prompting them to recall nonexistent broken glass and tape recorders; to think of a clean-shaven man as having a mustache, of straight hair as curly, of stop signs as yield signs, of hammers as screwdrivers; and to place something as large and conspicuous as a barn in a bucolic scene that contained no buildings at all.  I’ve been able to implant false memories in people’s minds, making them believe in characters who never existed and events that never happened.” A recent study based on statistical analyses has shown that the writers’ and coaches’ college football polls are significantly affected by such things as point spreads and television coverage3.

If humans have all of these susceptibilities toward bias, why do we use humans to choose who plays in college football’s vaunted playoff system?  Well, because humans are biased — they think they can choose better than nuanced mathematical formulas.  But the nuanced mathematical formulas are completely unbiased — in other words, they use only raw game data usually related to wins/losses and score differentials.  We can remove the most biased element in the system, humans, by relying specifically on science, logic, and mathematics rather than art or whatever else the committee protocol calls human intervention.  It is absolutely archaic in the day of big data to ignore analytical models in favor of subjective comparisons.  Do the coaches, atheletic directors, and politicians (e.g., Condoleezza Rice is on the committee but has virtually no “football experience” in her background) that make up the football committee understand the value of algorithms?  I am not sure, but there is a wealth of research that says they should.

From my experience on football boards and chat rooms, nothing gets a fan’s dander up more than claiming computer models are unbiased.   But they are.  They start with only formulas melded together into computer algorithms.  And the algorithms are based on sound mathematical principles and proofs.  There are many college football algorithms used in computer ranking models and many of them are considered proprietary.  More than 60 are compiled on www.mratings.com.  The math can get pretty intense, but if you are interested in the details of the known algorithms, I recommend the book Who’s #1?: The Science of Rating and Ranking by Amy N. Langville at the College of Charleston and Carl Meyer at North Carolina State University4.  The people that do these algorithms are steeped in mathematical prowess.   For example, the Colley matrix was done by Wes Colley after he completed his PhD at Princeton University in astrophysics.  Although the math can get tricky, the principle is rather simple. The algorithms typically involve matrices and vectors that simultaneously consider not only which team beat which opponents but which teams the opponents beat, and which teams those opponents beat out into n dimensions.  In addition, difficulty of schedule and score differentials can also be incorporated into the algorithms.  When we watch college football we get a sense of which team is best by comparing how each team plays against its opponents.  But such opinions are hopelessly mired in the biases and are enhanced by the fact that preseason polls skew our perceptions before the season begins.  The algorithms do precisely what human perception is trying to do but without any biases and simultaneously with a huge array of data 5.

I don’t understand the reluctance of the powers to be in college football to incorporate mathematical equations into the  playoff system.  These types of algorithms permeate the business community.  Google’s PageRank ranks web pages using some of the same algorithms as computer models do to rank teams.  Although it is a carefully guarded secret, Langville and Meyer 6 concluded, based on patent documents, that Google’s algorithm uses the Perron-Frobenius theorem  which is also used by James Keener in his football rankings 7.   The BellKor company won a Netflix prize of 1 million dollars for writing an algorithm that was 10% better than the one created by Netflix.  Every time Netflix suggests a movie, it is exploiting the same kinds of algorithms used in football rankings.  In fact, Langville and Meyer applied the algorithms behind the Colley and Massey methods to the Netflix movie ratings database and came up with a list of the top movies in their book (pages 25-27).  No one complains about page ranks or movie suggestions being too nuanced in rigor.  Can you imagine a committee trying to ascertain page ranks?  No one promotes the “eye test” to rank web pages even though the eye test is commonly prescribed as the only legitimate way to determine which teams are the best in college football.  Isn’t it obvious that this is about control rather than human abilities versus computer algorithms?

Deep data has been integrated into almost all sports.  Witness the way professional baseball has dispensed with the traditional positions on the field in favor of moving players to positions where the hitter is most likely to hit.  It is not unusual to see a shortstop in shallow center.  The game was primarily changed when computers had the computing power to handle the large amounts of data that could be collected.  Read Moneyball by David Lewis 8 to see how manager Billy Beane used statistics (now called sabermetrics) to take a struggling Oakland Atheletics team to the playoffs.  Opinions of seasoned professional scouts that relied on the eye test to recruit talent have gone the way of the dodo bird.

In my opinion, nothing seems more egregious in the polls than the way teams are punished for losing when they play difficult schedules and other teams are favored for winning even with cupcake schedules.  Let’s pretend we can determine the thirteen best teams in college football before the season and the number 13 team has scheduled all the top twelve teams during the regular season.  The number 13 team could finish the season 0-12.  The AP and Coaches polls would be extremely hard on the team and they would never rank the team in the top 25 even though we know by definition they are the 13th best team in the nation.  But the computer algorithms would recognize the logic behind the difficult schedule and although they might not rank them 13th, they would probably have a good showing.  The counter to this example is a team with a fluff schedule.  The polls are notorious for ranking teams with perfect records higher than is sometimes justified when strength of schedule is considered.  In theory, any team in the FBS could win all their games if they played lesser ranked opponents on their schedule.  Fortunately it appears that the playoff selection committee has recognized that strength of schedule is an important factor and they do consider it.  However, the committee’s willingness to consider head-to-head games seems logically misplaced.  Let’s go back to our top 13 ranked teams again.  If the number four team lost to the number 5 team and the number 5 team lost to the number 13 team,  the committee would indubitably place the number 5 team into the playoffs over the number 4 team based on the silly head-to-head rule even though the computer algorithms would recognize the problem and consider the entire schedule of each team.

Although we don’t like to admit it, statistically improbable events can have a huge impact on single games which may never be noticed by the committee (or the computer algorithms for that matter – see the section on betting below).   If anyone saw the national championship last year you could not be faulted for thinking that Clemson may have been the best team in the country even though they lost to Alabama (it hurts me to say this because I am an alumnus of Alabama and a huge Crimson Tide fan – I go way back to the Bear).  Alabama had an onside kick that they recovered.  It appeared to change the momentum of the game and yet, the probability of that onside kick being perfectly placed seems unlikely.  Watch it for yourself below.  Bama also needed a kickoff return and a few turnovers on their way to a 45-40 national championship victory.  The point being that minutiae that would otherwise not have a big impact can and does play a role.  It is the butterfly effect which teaches us that there is no right answer when it comes to rankings.  The best we can do is create an unbiased mathematical system rooted in statistics and deep data with as little input as possible from naturally biased humans.

Last year I set out to test the college football computer algorithms by setting up a spreadsheet which monitored theoretical bets of $100 on each of the college games beginning on November 8 through the college bowl games.  I waited until late in the season because, in theory, the algorithms work better with more data.  I used Sagarin‘s predictor ranking which includes score differentials and home-team advantage.  First a few words about these items.  It is true that teams can run up the score although it rarely happens on a consistent basis.  But most algorithms correct for large score differentials9 to avoid any advantages gained in the rankings from running up scores.  Home-team advantage is an interesting subject in itself and is usually attributed to psychological effects of playing in a stadium full of the home-team fans.  But these effects are difficult to test.  The subject has also been addressed in the scientific literature, and much to my surprise, some studies show that referees can be influenced by the home crowd.  For example, Harvard professor Ryan Boyko and his colleagues found that statistically referees favored the home team in 5,244 English Premier League soccer matches over the 1992 to 2006 seasons10.  Regardless of the reasons for the effect of home-field advantage, algorithms can correct for it.  Sagarin calculates a score to be added to the home team when betting.

The results of my theoretically betting are shown below for each week (the bowl season caused the number of games to vary in December).  Had I bet $100 on each of the 287 games monitored I would have lost $700.  So what’s so terrific about a ranking system that loses money in Vegas?  It is simple – point spread.    If Vegas lost money on college football games, there would be no betting.  It is common for the media to give point spreads in games as a reflection of who Vegas thinks will win the game.  But spreads are not about who is favored, the spreads are about enticing bettors to bet.  With a point spread, Vegas does not have to predict winners, all they need to do is entice bettors by making the point spread seem to favor one side or the other.  Vegas knows how to make money on all those built-in biases we have.  They collect a fee (called a vig or juice) for handling the bet, and as long as they have about the same number of losers and winners, they take home a tidy profit.  To make sure the winners and losers are equal, they shift the spread during the course of the week as the bets are placed assuring that the same amount of bettors are on both sides of the spread.  Even the computer algorithms can’t beat the crafty Vegas’ bookies.  Even though the computer algorithms are very good at predicting winners (near 60%), no algorithm (or, for that matter, any human) can beat spreads on a consistent basis11.  But people keep trying.

tableAmount of money theoretically lost using Sagarin rankings.

Langville and Meyer point to two reasons why computer algorithms don’t beat point spreads; 1) The computer algorithms are created to predict rankings not score differentials.  In the computations, they ignore important scoring factors such as strength of defensive backfields against high-octane passing attacks which might create lopsided scores even though the rankings rate both teams average.   Then there are always the statistical flukes that occur in games as mentioned above which cannot be predicted.  2) Spreads are also difficult to predict particularly in football because points are tabulated in sets of usually 3, 6 or 7.  Therefore, games tend to be multiples of these numbers rather than simple evenly distributed numbers.

I must conclude from the data that the only way to select the four teams that play at the end of the year in college football is to use computer algorithms.  There should still be a committee that decides how to weigh such things as league championships.  It will also be extremely important to make sure that the algorithms used are completely understood by the committee (no black-box proprietary claims).  The algorithms need to be analyzed to determine which equations and factors give the most meaningful results and changed accordingly.  Score differentials should be included within the algorithm after they have been corrected for the potential of teams running up the scores.

Appendix – a brief overview of linear algebra and rankings

There is no way in an essay I can do justice to the subject.  But I did want to emphasize how these equations eliminate any bias or human influence.  I highly recommend the Khan Academy if you want a brief overview of linear algebra.

Rather than use my own example, I have decided to use the data presented by Langville and Meyer because it is easier to understand when every team in the example has played every other team in the division.  The data shown below comes from the 2005 Atlantic Coast Conference games.

accThe 2005 data from the Atlantic Coast Conference

The Massey method of ranking teams was developed by Kenneth Massey for his honor’s thesis in mathematics while he was an undergraduate at Bluefield College in 1997.  He is currently an assistant professor at Carson Newman University.  Using his equations, the table above can be converted into a linear algebra equation of the form Mr = p where M is the matrix containing information about which teams played which other teams, r is the rating factor (which is equated to the ranking), and p is the sum of each team’s score differentials:

calc

Note the diagonals of M are the games played and each -1 in the matrix shows that each team played every other team.  The last row is a trick Massey used to force the ranks to sum to 0.  The solution is calculated by inverting the matrix M and multiplying times p to obtain the following results 12:

final

  1. Kahneman, D. (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
  2. Loftus, E. and Ketcham, K. (1994) The Myth of Repressed Memories: False Memories and Allegations of Sexual Abuse: St. Martin’s Press
  3. Paul, R. J., Weinbach, A. P., and Coate, P. (2007) Expectations and voting in the NCAA football polls: The wisdom of point spread markets: J. Sports Economics, 8, 412
  4. Langville, A.N. and Meyer, C. (2012) Who’s #1?: The Science of Rating and Ranking: Princeton University Press
  5. I would like to thank Amy Langville for suggested changes here
  6. see ref. 4
  7. Keener, J. (1993) The Perron-Frobenius theorem and the ranking of football teams: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 35, 80
  8. Lewis, D. (2003) Moneyball: W. W. Norton & Company
  9. see ref. 4
  10. Boyko et al. (2007) Referee bias contributes to home advantage in English Premiership football: Journal of Sports Sciences, 25, 1185
  11. see ref. 4
  12. see ref. 4 for details